Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why $120K Is Sticky—and Why a New ATH May Come After August
Bitcoin (BTC) printed a fresh all-time high above $124,000 before slipping back below the $120,000 mark. For investors searching for a data-driven bitcoin price prediction, the recent pullback can be explained by a mix of U.S. policy headlines, decelerating on-chain inflows, and a notable mid-August timing signal that often precedes consolidations. At the same time, on-chain metrics reveal a sharp rotation of capital toward Ethereum (ETH) while Solana (SOL) loses momentum—an evolving “capital map” that has important implications for any near-term bitcoin price.
In this article, we analyze the key drivers behind the retrace. You’ll find the critical support and resistance levels, MVRV-based thresholds, and scenario analysis that frames whether a new ATH is more likely after August.
Why did Bitcoin pull back after the ATH?
The retreat stems from several converging factors. First, sentiment cooled after the U.S. Treasury signaled it would not pursue additional BTC purchases for a national reserve, curbing speculation near the psychologically important $120,000 level.
Second, on-chain data shows a clear deceleration in fresh capital: Bitcoin’s 7-day Realized Cap (RC) net growth has compressed significantly relative to past breakouts, implying thinner liquidity behind the rally.
Third, a time-sensitive inflection between 8/14 and 8/16 saw two key model lines (blue and green) turn simultaneously; if the red line aligns, this setup has historically preceded a near-term pullback—suggesting that firmly holding $120,000 may require multiple attempts.
Source: Murphy X Account
Finally, capital is rotating toward ETH while SOL lags, a change that channels hot money away from BTC in the short run and complicates any aggressive bitcoin price prediction for August.
Key On-Chain Data Trends: Realized Cap Dynamics
To evaluate genuine capital entering or exiting the market, analysts frequently rely on the 7-day Realized Cap (RC) metric. RC tracks the aggregate value at which coins last moved on-chain, filtering out the noise of simple exchange churn and highlighting real net inflows. This lens is crucial for a robust bitcoin price prediction because it reflects the depth of demand supporting price at new highs.
In Past Bullish Breakouts
During major breakouts—March 2024, December 2024, and July 2025—Bitcoin’s 7-day RC net increase consistently exceeded $20 billion, confirming powerful, broad-based inflows. Approximate reference points include $25.9 billion in March 2024, $27.8 billion in December 2024, and $22.6 billion in July 2025. Historically, these surges in realized-cap growth aligned with durable momentum and sustained price expansion beyond prior peaks, reinforcing constructive bitcoin price prediction models at the time.
Latest Cycle
In contrast, the latest reading shows BTC’s 7-day RC net growth shrinking to roughly $5.8 billion. Even as price hovers near record levels, the slowdown indicates that the market is running on thinner fresh capital than in earlier cycles. This divergence raises the probability of a consolidation phase, or intermittent pullbacks, unless inflows re-accelerate. For traders refining a short-term bitcoin price prediction, this weaker RC backdrop argues for caution at resistance.
Comparative Analysis: ETH and SOL
ETH’s 7-day RC net growth is holding near $4.7 billion—unusually strong relative to previous cycles and now uncomfortably close to BTC’s inflow pace. In earlier breakouts, ETH typically registered $6.2 billion (Mar 2024), $4.8 billion (Dec 2024), and $5.6 billion (Jul 2025), keeping a respectful distance from BTC’s outsized inflows. SOL, by contrast, currently shows around $0.5 billion in 7-day RC net growth—well below the $4–5 billion range seen during prior rallies (about $5.5 billion in Mar 2024, $4.0 billion in Dec 2024, and $4.7 billion in Jul 2025). This redistribution confirms a rotation: ETH is siphoning a disproportionate share of fresh capital while SOL fades, a dynamic that directly influences any near-term bitcoin price prediction.
Market Rotation: ETH Takes the Spotlight, SOL Loses Favor
Historically, BTC dominates realized-cap inflows during trend expansions, with ETH a solid second and SOL a distant third. Recently, that hierarchy has shifted. BTC’s inflow compression and ETH’s unusually resilient momentum point to a temporary siphon effect, where both speculative and institutional capital seeks opportunity beyond BTC. For a tactical bitcoin price prediction, this means less marginal liquidity available to propel BTC through overhead resistance without a period of rebuilding.
Price Levels, Timing, and Outlook
A precise bitcoin price prediction must weigh on-chain valuation bands alongside timing signals.
Resistance: MVRV-Based Thresholds
The MVRV ratio near 2.42 corresponds to resistance around $126,000. A decisive breakout and sustained hold above this zone would improve the odds of trend continuation. The first tactical waypoint within the MVRV deviation channel remains near $125,000; reclaiming and backtesting it successfully would be a constructive step for any bullish bitcoin price prediction.
Supports: Structural Guardrails
On-chain structure suggests multiple supports above $100,000. The $117,000 area (11.7w) has already acted as effective support in the move to new highs. A deeper structural guardrail sits near MVRV ~1.93, mapping to roughly $100,000. While not the immediate base case, it frames the downside boundary for risk management in a conservative bitcoin price prediction.
Timing and Seasonality
The 8/14–8/16 window is a sensitive inflection: the blue and green model lines turned together, and if the red line aligns, it historically precedes a pullback or choppy consolidation. Practically, holding $120,000 may require multiple tests. Even if a breakout is feasible, model timing favors cleaner conditions after August 31, making late Q3 a more favorable window for upside extension. This aligns with typical post-halving seasonality—strength into mid-summer, softness in September, and a potential attempt higher into Q4—an important context for any medium-term bitcoin price prediction.
Scenarios for Bitcoin Price Prediction into Q3–Q4
Bullish Scenario: New Highs After August
If realized-cap inflows re-accelerate, rotation pressure from ETH stabilizes, and BTC clears the $125,000–$126,000 band with a successful retest, the path opens to fresh highs in late Q3 or Q4. In that case, a momentum extension toward the $140,000–$150,000 range becomes plausible, especially if macro liquidity stays supportive and institutional demand (ETF/treasury/whale activity) resumes—an outcome consistent with an optimistic bitcoin price prediction.
Bearish Scenario: Double-Top Risk and Deeper Retests
If BTC’s realized-cap inflows remain subdued while ETH continues to absorb liquidity, the structure could resemble a double top, with seasonal softness into September. BTC could retest $117,000–$110,000, with a non-trivial risk of probing the ~$100,000 area aligned with MVRV ~1.93 before forming a stronger base. Under this setup, a cautious bitcoin price prediction would emphasize risk control and patience during consolidation.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s pullback after setting a new ATH is best explained by policy headlines, slowing realized-cap inflows, a mid-August timing inflection that often precedes dips, and a pronounced rotation toward ETH. A new ATH remains plausible after August if BTC can reclaim and hold above $125,000–$126,000 on rising on-chain inflows. Until then, the most balanced bitcoin price prediction calls for patience, respect for support and resistance, and close monitoring of realized-cap trends and capital rotation. As liquidity conditions evolve into late Q3 and Q4, these signals will be decisive in determining whether BTC resumes its uptrend or extends its consolidation.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are volatile and carry risk. Always conduct your own research before investing.
