Oil Prices Amid Iran-Israel Conflict: What's Next?

The crude oil market is currently experiencing high volatility, significantly impacted by the escalating Iran-Israel conflict. Latest data from March 10, 2026, shows WTI crude oil prices hovering around $88-90 per barrel (with significant intraday volatility, having retreated from earlier highs), while Brent crude is around $92-93 per barrel (also showing a notable pullback). Prior to the conflict's outbreak (around late February 2026), oil prices were generally in the $65-70 per barrel range. Following the full-scale escalation, prices surged to near-historic highs of approximately $120 per barrel (intraday on March 9). However, a sharp correction occurred after U.S. President Trump stated the war might end "soon" and progress exceeded expectations, leading to a temporary easing of short-term panic sentiment.

Summary of Crude Oil Price Changes Following the Iran-Israel War Outbreak

The table below, based on public market data, shows changes in key benchmark oil prices around major conflict milestones (approximate values in USD/barrel).

Future Outlook for Crude Oil Prices

High Short-Term Volatility Expected

In the short term, oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile. Geopolitical risk remains the core driver. While Trump's optimistic remarks triggered a correction, prices could quickly rebound above $100 if Iran continues retaliation, US/Israel expand strikes, or if there is further disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping. The market has priced in some reduction of the "war premium," but risk sentiment remains fragile. OPEC+'s capacity to increase production is limited (Iran's own output is affected), coupled with slow global demand recovery. Short-term support is seen in the $85-90 range, with resistance at $105-110. Volatility is extremely high, favoring intraday/short-term traders.

Medium-Term Return to a Rational Range

The medium-term outlook is cautiously optimistic. If the conflict de-escalates within weeks (e.g., via a US-brokered ceasefire), prices may gradually retreat to a rational range of $80-95, realigning with supply-demand fundamentals (rising global inventories, non-OPEC supply growth). However, if it evolves into a prolonged proxy war or regional instability, supply disruption risks will sustain a higher "risk premium," potentially pushing Brent to test $100-120. Trading Economics models forecast Brent around $107 by quarter-end and approximately $118 in 12 months, reflecting market expectations for persistent geopolitical risk. On the demand side, recovery in China/India and a soft landing in Western economies will provide support, though high prices may curb demand.

Long-Term Dependent on Energy Market Shifts

Long-term price trends will depend on the pace of energy transition and reshaping geopolitical structures. The conflict may accelerate changes in the Middle East energy landscape (restricted Iranian exports, increased Saudi output), but the global shift to renewables will cap long-term demand peaks. Assuming no major new conflicts, Brent's reasonable range before 2030 could be $70-100, influenced by rising EV penetration. If geopolitical risks become常态化 (normalized), higher oil prices could become the new norm, benefiting traditional energy stocks and related commodities.

Detailed Guide to Trading Crude Oil CFDs on Bitget

Given the high volatility in oil markets, especially during geopolitical events, contract trading is an effective way to capture opportunities. Bitget, a leading trading platform, offers CFD (Contract for Difference) trading for crude oil, including UKOUSD (Brent Crude) and USOUSD (WTI Crude). Users can use USDT as margin for long or short positions without holding physical oil, with flexible leverage, suitable for hedging or speculation.

1. How to Register and Open a Bitget CFD Account

• Step 1: Register a Bitget Account: Visit the Bitget website or download the Bitget App. Click "Register," quickly create an account using email/phone/Google, and complete Advanced KYC verification (CFDs are regulated traditional financial products; trading is unavailable without Advanced KYC).

• Step 2: Open CFD/MT5 Account: After logging in, click 【Contracts】 on the top navigation bar, then select 【CFD Contracts】. On the page, click "Create Account," set your MT5 master password. Upon completion, the system will generate your dedicated CFD account (based on the MetaTrader 5 terminal).

2. How to Deposit and Transfer Funds

• Go to the Bitget Assets page, click Deposit, and select USDT (recommend starting with at least 100-500 USDT for a better experience).

• In the CFD interface, click "Transfer" to move USDT from your Spot account to your CFD account (no fee). Select the currency: USDT, enter the amount, and confirm for instant transfer. (The CFD account only supports USDT as margin; no conversion to fiat is needed.)

3. How to Open a Crude Oil Trade

• Access Trading Interface: In the CFD section, select "Commodities" or search for UKOUSD (Brent) or USOUSD (WTI).

• Choose Leverage: Crude oil leverage can typically go up to 200x-500x (high leverage amplifies both profits and risks; beginners are advised to start with 5x-20x).

• Placing an Order:

• Market Order: Executes immediately at the current price, suitable for quick entry to capture volatility.

• Limit Order: Sets a specific price to buy/sell, suitable for waiting for a pullback or breakout.

• Choose Direction: Buy (Long) if expecting prices to rise; Sell (Short) if expecting prices to fall.

• Enter Trade Volume (Lots): Crude oil contract specifications are typically 1 lot = 1000 barrels, minimum can start from 0.01 lots.

• Set Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL): It is strongly recommended to set both simultaneously. For example, set SL 2-5% below the entry price (adjust based on volatility).

• Confirm Order: Review margin usage, potential profit/loss, and click "Buy/Sell" to open the position.

• Position Management: After opening a position, view real-time P&L and margin level under the "Positions" or "Trading" tab. Hedging mode is supported (allowing simultaneous long and short positions on the same instrument).

4. Risk Control & Management (Strongly Recommended to Implement Strictly)

Crude oil markets are extremely volatile (especially during the Iran-Israel conflict). Core risk management points are:

• 1% Rule: Risk no more than 1% of your total account capital on a single trade (e.g., $100 risk on a $10,000 account). Use this to determine position size and stop-loss distance.

• Always Set Stop-Loss/Take-Profit: Set these when opening the position or immediately after to avoid emotional trading. Bitget CFD offers trailing stop-loss, which automatically moves the stop-loss as the price moves favorably.

• Monitor Margin Level: Keep an eye on your Margin Level. The system typically issues a warning when it falls below 100%, and forces liquidation (margin call) below a certain threshold (e.g., 50%-80%) to prevent negative account balance.

• Position Limits: The current platform limit for USOUSD/UKOUSD is 20 lots per account to avoid excessive leverage.

• Emotion & Capital Management: Set daily/weekly maximum loss limits (e.g., 3%-5%) and stop trading upon reaching them. It is advised to practice with small amounts first.

• Other Tools: Use MT5 built-in indicators (MA, RSI, Bollinger Bands, etc.) to aid decision-making; follow real-time news to avoid holding positions during major events (like OPEC meetings, Fed announcements).

5. Other Practical Information

• Trading Fees: Crude oil CFD commissions are approximately $2.7-$3 per lot (depending on VIP level, lower for VIP3+); floating spreads (typically around 0.01-0.03); overnight holding incurs swap fees (positive or negative depending on direction). Overall costs are significantly lower than traditional forex brokers.

• Trading Hours: Crude oil trades nearly 24/5 (Monday to Friday, with brief settlement breaks).

• Key Advantages: Convenient USDT deposits, flexible leverage, tight spreads, deep liquidity; combines crypto advantages, suitable for global users.

• Risk Warning: CFDs are high-risk products. Leveraged trading can lead to the loss of your entire capital. Only trade with risk capital you can afford to lose. Never trade with borrowed funds or use your entire balance. Bitget offers a $300M+ Protection Fund and Proof of Reserves to safeguard user assets.