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Glonghui, February 3rd｜Steven Major, Global Macro Advisor at broker Tradition Dubai, stated that the rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, led by Kevin Walsh, may far exceed current market expectations. Major said on Tuesday: "I think a fairly reasonable assumption is that if he were not in the rate-cutting camp, he would not be considered for this position. The market is currently pricing in about two rate cuts, but we may see four or five, rather than two." The pricing in the money market currently suggests there is about an 80% probability of a second rate cut in 2026, and last week the market even considered the possibility of a third cut. This is because, compared to other candidates previously considered by Trump, the market views Walsh as more hawkish. His nomination still requires Senate confirmation.

ChainCatcher reported that Bitcoin has fallen below the $80,000 mark. Wintermute had previously identified $85,000 as the key pivot level for the market direction this quarter, but this level failed to provide support and instead became the ceiling for the price decline. Bitcoin subsequently touched $75,700. Wintermute's analysis pointed out that this drop marks the market's entry into a period of extreme fear, with sentiment dominated by deleveraging and the liquidation of high-beta speculative positions. Wintermute believes that the traditional four-year halving cycle has become ineffective amid institutionalization, and the crypto economic structure is shifting towards a walled garden model, with liquidity concentrated in spot ETFs and large-cap assets backed by digital asset treasuries. The average duration of altcoin rebounds has compressed from 60 days in 2024 to 20 days by early 2026. Wintermute listed three main variables for market recovery: institutional mandates expanding to assets such as Solana and XRP, continued Bitcoin appreciation generating a wealth effect, and the return of retail interest. Wintermute emphasized that a true reversal may depend more on Federal Reserve policy than on crypto industry narratives.

According to Bijie Network: Bijie Network reports that Hougan from a certain exchange believes that the current market is closer to recovery rather than further decline, and points out that structural progress in areas such as regulatory developments, institutional adoption, and tokenization continues. He stated that crypto winters usually end with market exhaustion rather than excitement, and the current sense of despair and fatigue is similar to the conditions at previous market bottoms.