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On April 1, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin transaction fees have dropped to their lowest level since 2017. Bitcoin transaction fees have historically been considered relatively high, with some fees reaching hundreds of dollars during network congestion. However, the situation is now quite the opposite. The average Bitcoin transaction fee has fallen below $0.40, indicating that transaction costs are at a very low level. Nevertheless, the decline in transaction volume is not as pronounced. On an annual average, daily transaction volume still exceeds 3,000, which is not low. The decrease in fees is primarily attributed to the introduction of inscriptions, which has somewhat limited the weight of transactions that can be included in each block. Although this was achieved through a soft fork, it remains a significant development for Bitcoin. It is also interesting to compare fee changes with price trends. Historically, fee peaks often occur at Bitcoin price tops, while fee lows tend to appear during bear market phases—exactly the case now.

On April 1, Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a report that since the outbreak of the Iraq War, the market pricing of the U.S. federal funds rate has experienced significant fluctuations, but the likelihood of a rate hike this year remains low. The analysts stated that the current supply shock is relatively small and more limited compared to past shocks that triggered inflation issues, with oil price increases also being less than those seen in the 1970s. Furthermore, they believe that 'the starting point of the economy makes the likelihood of widespread inflation spillover low,' and the current monetary policy stance has also reduced the probability of rate hikes. The analysts emphasized, 'The Federal Reserve typically does not tighten policy solely in response to oil shocks.' (Jinshi)

Golden Ten Data reported on April 1 that investors have determined that, as energy prices surge following an attack by Israel and the US on Iran, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will have to raise benchmark interest rates to curb inflation. However, some key policymakers are not so certain. In a series of recorded statements, officials from both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England warned that it should not be assumed that rate hikes are inevitable, nor should it be believed that a decision must be made immediately.Although the rise in energy prices has led to a rebound in inflation, the most important factor for officials is how labor and management respond. If workers successfully seek higher wage increases, the prices of labor-intensive services may rise, causing inflation to persist for a longer period; if workers remain patient or are unsuccessful in seeking raises, inflation could fall back to pre-war levels even without increasing borrowing costs.In addition, decisions largely depend on how long the Strait of Hormuz is closed and how long energy infrastructure remains damaged. If high energy prices persist throughout the year, workers are more likely to demand higher wages. If the central banks judge that there will be no “second-round effects,” they may maintain current interest rates. Historically, the European Central Bank raised rates in 2011 in response to rising energy prices—a misstep that plunged the economy into trouble, a lesson that continues to influence decision-making today.