JPMorgan Chase: Predicts a 25 basis point rate cut instead of 50 basis points

According to Jinshi News, lowering short-term interest rates from a high level is like moving a piano downstairs. This operation needs to be done carefully and gradually. This is an analogy made by David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Chase, in his latest report on the Federal Reserve's decision this week. The policy path will be conveyed to the market through economic forecast summaries, FOMC statements, Powell's press conference and the closely watched "dot plot". Therefore, Kelly has extrapolated these key links to explore the possible direction of short-term interest rates. Kelly pointed out that one of the biggest risks currently facing the economy and markets is that overly aggressive actions or negative rhetoric by the Fed could increase the risk of economic recession. However, he believes that the Fed has the ability to avoid this situation. He predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points instead of 50 basis points and emphasize its achievements in inflation control rather than concerns about economic growth during this process.