Japan’s carmakers are expecting $19 billion in losses from US tariffs

Japan’s biggest carmakers expect to lose more than $19 billion after the tariffs that United States President Donald Trump placed on imported vehicles and parts sent shockwaves through the auto industry.

The industry’s leading brands say the duties will squeeze financial performance this year and beyond. Some firms have even stopped giving guidance while they recalculate the cost of Washington’s changing policies and consider whether to shift future work away from North America.

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest carmaker, faces the steepest blow. The company told investors last week that its operating income will take a ¥180 billion ($1.2 billion) hit in April and May. Bloomberg Intelligence says the total damage in the fiscal year that ends next March could reach $10.7 billion, while Pelham Smithers analyst Julie Boote puts the range between $5.4 billion and $6.8 billion.

Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. each put the loss at about $3 billion. Subaru Corp., which brings roughly half of the cars it sells in the United States across the Pacific, withheld annual guidance after warning of a $2.5 billion dent. Mazda Motor Corp. also skipped a full-year outlook.

Most vehicles that enter the United States have faced a 25 percent tariff since 3 April. Most parts crossed the same threshold on 3 May. Executive orders block the duties from doubling up, yet analysts say the levies will still add several thousand dollars to a new car bill.

The United States is the single biggest market for Japan’s auto majors, many of which use factories in Mexico and Canada and then ship finished vehicles over the border. The new tariffs make that long-running model costly, even unworkable, and leave managers studying how to rebuild supply chains fast enough to avoid the charge.

Automakers are putting their hopes on trade talks

Negotiations between Tokyo and Washington are expected to speed up later this month, and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has pledged not to sign any deal that fails to tackle auto duties, a sector he calls vital to the nation’s economy. While they wait, companies are already changing course.

Honda this week delayed by two years a C$15 billion ($11 billion) plan to set up an electric-vehicle supply chain in Canada, which would have included a plant able to turn out 240,000 cars a year. The firm has begun moving production of the hybrid Civic from Japan to the United States as well. Around 40 percent of the 1.4 million cars Honda sold in America in 2024 were imported, Bloomberg Intelligence data show.

Subaru says all spending plans, including programs to develop electric vehicles , are now under review. Nissan has paused U.S. orders for sport-utility vehicles built in Mexico, and Mazda is ending shipments to Canada of one model made at the Alabama joint venture it runs with Toyota.

Toyota for its part has kept production steady so far. Chief Executive Koji Sato told reporters last week that the group will look at raising U.S. output over the medium to long term rather than making sudden moves.

The levy is especially hard on Nissan, which is already fighting its worst crisis in 25 years. Management has announced 20,000 job cuts and the closure of seven plants worldwide. Even with those deep cuts, the company still needs fresh cash after merger talks with Honda failed earlier this year.

“Nissan’s plight could have been minimized if it had taken these steps sooner,” said Bloomberg Intelligence senior auto analyst Tatsuo Yoshida. “The impact of these measures, compared to what other carmakers are doing or even what Nissan has done in the past, is unclear.”

Analysts warn that every month of uncertainty risks slowing new investment, eroding skilled jobs, and pushing research funds toward regions that still trade freely with few policy shocks or barriers.

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