Retail Traders Show Confidence While Bitcoin Whales Step Back

• Retail traders increased their Bitcoin exposure while large holders reduced positions, signaling a shift in short-term market sentiment.
• Binance Futures open interest failed to break resistance, reflecting weakening momentum among futures traders.

Bitcoin price may be moving closer to the danger zone, but that hasn’t stopped retail traders from jumping in and hoping for more. Over the past week, retail investor behavior has become increasingly aggressive, even as signals from the derivatives market indicate fatigue.

On-chain analyst Amr Taha of CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) on Binance is still stuck at $11.5 billion. That number seems to be a wall that is difficult to penetrate. Traders are seen closing their positions every time the OI figure approaches that level—similar to what happened on June 10.

This situation suggests that futures players are starting to lose steam. It could be not because they are pessimistic, but because there is not enough fuel to push the price higher than that saturation point.

Whales Step Back as Retail Traders Take Center Stage

Furthermore, the movement of large holders, aka whales, has also changed direction. Amr Taha notes that entities holding more than 10,000 BTC—usually large institutions or ultra-wealthy wallets—started dumping about 12,000 BTC on July 3.

Those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have also joined in, selling about 14,000 BTC since June 30. The combination of the two groups suggests a distribution phase, a time when large holders begin to reduce exposure and take a step back.

At the same time, however, short-term holders—mostly retail—appear to be taking over the stage. They added about 382,000 BTC in early July. The surge reflects renewed enthusiasm, perhaps because they view the price drop as a surprise discount.

Long-term holders , on the other hand, chose to reduce exposure by about the same amount. They appear to be less inclined to follow the FOMO wave and prefer to play it safe.

Bitcoin Market Reacts to Option Expiry and Mysterious BTC Shift

Another signal is coming from the options market. CNF recently reported that $3 billion worth of BTC options contracts have expired , and analysts are predicting a potential correction as the max pain point is at $106,000. However, if the price is able to stay above $108,000, there is a possibility of re-targeting the $111,000 level.

Interestingly, this surge in retail activity also coincided with the release of US jobs and unemployment data. Many interpreted the data as a bullish signal for BTC. Perhaps they hoped that the central bank would be looser in its monetary policy or even predicted that economic uncertainty could actually fuel the price.

But it doesn’t end there. Not long ago, 10,000 BTC that had been “sleeping” for 14 years were suddenly moved. Many immediately panicked, but analysts warned: don’t rush to judge it as a bearish signal. The context of the transaction is not yet completely clear, and it may not be for sale. Who knows, it’s just a wallet transfer?

At the time of writing, the price of BTC was around $108,283.40, down slightly by 0.64% in the last 24 hours. Its daily trading volume reached $41.84 billion—still quite active, although not yet very lively.

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