Pokémon Card Craze: The Cognitive Gap Between Crypto Players and Collectors

Author: simple_peanut

Translation: Felix, PANews

Original Title: The Pokémon Card Craze in the Eyes of a Veteran Crypto User and TCG Collector

Given the rising popularity of the trading card game (TCG) RWA sector, there is a knowledge gap among non-collectors in crypto and non-crypto-native collectors in a field they may not have explored or are unfamiliar with. Therefore, I decided to write this article last weekend. The purpose of this article is threefold:

• To introduce crypto players to the Pokémon TCG collecting hobby and its market

• To help those who only understand one of the fields to comprehend and point out the gaps that Pokémon RWA protocols need or do not need to fill

• To share my views on this niche sector

I am a crypto enthusiast and work in this industry. I approach the crypto industry much like collecting Pokémon cards and interacting with fellow enthusiasts—sociable, enjoy making friends, like hanging out with them, but also value personal privacy.

I started collecting Pokémon cards as a child (paused during high school/university, then resumed later).

In the crypto circle, not many friends know about this hobby of mine, but given the current craze, it seems appropriate to talk about it now—you can tell from the photos below that I am a serious collector. I also have unopened cards and products. You might say I’m just riding the wave, having recently bought a bunch of these things to show off. But the truth is, the origin of these cards and products (both those in the photos and those in storage) is rooted in childhood innocence, combined with effort and persistence in adulthood (paused during university because Pokémon wasn’t “cool” then).

For wealthy crypto players, this may be nothing, but for me, it took a lot of time/energy, careful thought, intuition, and luck (not professionally, but as a Pokémon collector) to grow my collection to its current scale.

Cards from childhood (pulled from packs) and adulthood (purchased in previous cycles). Most of the sealed products here are from the current cycle. Other cards from previous cycles are stored in the warehouse.

Childhood binder

Given that most readers (if any) are from the crypto sector, I won’t elaborate on $CARDS FDV, Pokémon TCG RWA protocol data, as such discussions are already plentiful; instead, I’ll try to provide more insights from the perspective of a Pokémon collector/investor.

Pokémon TCG Collecting/Investing Market Cycles

In short:

• The Pokémon TCG market has boom and bust cycles, very similar to macroeconomics and/or the crypto market.

• Despite the cycles, the prices of Pokémon cards and sealed products have steadily risen like steps over the years.

• That said, just like stocks or tokens, not every card and sealed product fluctuates in a “binary way”—that is, price increases do not necessarily mean profit.

Also, to clarify, in the 2000s, I was a child to a teenager, had no financial knowledge, and didn’t understand cycles. It wasn’t until university and adulthood that I understood and experienced cycles in the Pokémon TCG field.

Below is a rough sketch of the Pokémon TCG cycles I’ve experienced, along with a detailed description of the catalysts for each boom cycle.

Catalyst for the 2016 boom cycle:

When I was about to graduate from university, I picked up this hobby again (2016/17), coinciding with the release of the Pokémon TCG XY Evolutions set.

This hobby started trending because the XY Evolutions set cards were reprints of the original base set, with slight but noticeable differences. This evoked nostalgia in many young people who played the base set as kids, sparking the Pokémon craze in 2016.

Interestingly: 2016 was also the year the Mario and Luigi Pikachu promo cards were released—each box sold for $30 to $40 at the time. Today, the full-art Mario Pikachu sells for $10,000 to $14,000.

Catalyst for the 2020 boom cycle:

1. The launch of “Pokemon GO” (mobile game) became a global sensation.

2. COVID-19 pandemic:

• People were bored

• Government issued subsidies

3. After the pandemic shock, macro/risk appetite increased.

4. Influence of Logan Paul and other celebrities—high-value cards became status symbols:

• Logan (internet celebrity) flaunted his BGS 10 first edition base set Charizard and PSA 10 limited edition Pikachu

• Logan opened a first edition base set booster pack live on stream

• Steve Aoki (Japanese-American DJ, music producer) revealed his collecting interest and opened Aoki’s Cardhouse

5. Many ordinary people followed suit—buying sealed products and opening them live, selling packs to viewers at high prices.

Catalyst for the 2025 boom cycle:

1. Overall favorable macro environment for risk assets/bull market.

2. Pokémon TCG enters the Chinese market:

• Official release of Pokémon card Chinese version in China

• Chinese players (tycoons) buy high-value cards en masse, as these cards are not expensive for them

3. Launch of Pokémon Pocket—digital card packs on mobile, attracting people to experience the thrill in real life.

4. Rise of card shows and card vendors; card vendor perspectives on YouTube are increasingly popular—people love seeing deals made.

5. Chain reaction of the above factors: (i) Crypto-native users and RWA protocol users buy full sets and sealed products for investment and/or resale; (ii) Kevin O’Leary recently announced he became a card collector (sports cards); (iii) Streamers again buy sealed products, just like last cycle, selling at a premium to consumers and opening them live.

Similar/common features of each Pokémon craze:

• Positive macro/risk appetite environment

• The Pokémon Company always cleverly introduces a catalyst that may trigger nostalgia

• Just like in crypto, ordinary people (i.e., non-Pokémon card collectors) start talking about it, ask you about it, and share cards on Instagram.

• Just like in crypto, new players enter the market.

• Pokémon product supply is tight; scalpers appear, fighting over Pokémon card products at Target/Walmart and other stores (a stabbing incident occurred in July), and every cycle sees disputes over queuing.

• Celebrity participation: Logan Paul and Steve Aoki were highlights of the 2020 craze, Kevin O’Leary is the highlight of the 2025 craze

• Streamers emerge: massive purchases of sealed products (further pushing up sealed product prices), then opening them live and selling to viewers for profit.

New changes in the 2025 cycle (which may ultimately be irrelevant from a financial and market cycle perspective):

• Rise of vendors and card shows + vendor perspective videos—a “Pawn Stars” style experience

• The Chinese market and big Chinese buyers

• Crypto-native participants and crypto whales

Similarities between crypto and Pokémon TCG collecting/investing

• Both are forms of “gambling”: whether done responsibly and thoughtfully or in a degen way (e.g., pack opening, blind boxes, trading NFTs/meme coins, etc.), both fields trigger psychological responses in the brain’s gambling psychology / human herd instinct and hoarding instinct.

• Both have boom and bust cycles: people’s attitudes/opinions can be fickle and opportunistic—chased during booms, scoffed at during busts. (Just like mocking Ethereum last year, but being proud to hold Ethereum this year)

• Both are volatile asset classes: both outperform traditional asset classes (e.g., S&P Index).

Nuances: What crypto-native users and pure Pokémon collectors/investors need to know

This section will emphasize “what crypto enthusiasts need to know,” as most readers of this article are crypto people, not pure Pokémon collectors/investors.

• Buying tokens or meme coins of Pokémon RWA protocols may seem silly, but there are still opportunities to make money. Just like Pokémon-themed paper cards, they may seem insignificant but can also yield returns.

• Through blockchain technology, TCG RWA protocols have the potential to offer collectors something unique. It’s just that in the current state, the greatest potential hasn’t been seen yet.

• It’s commendable that using cards as loan collateral is a huge value add for both crypto players and collectors—this is an advantage of TCG RWA protocols over existing traditional solutions in this field.

• Just like Pokémon cards and sealed products, in crypto, not all “boats rise with the tide” (i.e., not all tokens bring returns).

What crypto enthusiasts need to know (if you don’t care, you can skip)

1. Just like crypto, collecting Pokémon requires experience, skill, knowledge, intuition, and luck.

2. The idea that Pokémon RWA protocols can solve liquidity fragmentation is silly, for the following reasons:

• Take the stock market as an example, there are many traditional venues, such as Saxo, IBKR, etc. Beyond tokenized stocks, there’s a broader world and a larger market. Similarly, in the TCG secondary market, most trading volume happens on eBay, TCGplayer, via Telegram OTC (face-to-face deals), at numerous card shows worldwide, and places like Facebook Marketplace.

• Moreover, for tokenized stocks on current RWA protocols, liquidity is weak. And as more RWA protocols offer tokenized stocks in their own wrappers, it only further fragments the stock market.

3. For crypto-native non-collectors, TCG RWA protocols may be doing something novel/revolutionary, but for collectors, this is mostly a myth:

• Marketplaces like eBay and card grading institutions like PSA already offer vault custody services—send your cards to the vault, and they’ll even verify (i.e., grade) your card’s authenticity. You can choose to leave the card there for easy trading, or redeem it and have the physical card sent back to you. Comparing TCG RWA protocol proposals to existing traditional solutions, in their current state, they don’t have much of a moat.

• The reason tokenizing assets (like stocks or government bonds) is so feasible is that blockchain technology enables t+0 settlement—(i) this improves on traditional payment solutions’ t+1/t+2 settlement times, (ii) extends trading hours from Monday to Friday to 24/7 year-round, (iii) buyers of stocks or bonds don’t want the physical asset in hand. In contrast, passionate collectors/investors often want to actually own the card—they emotionally enjoy having the physical card, and practically, they like to take it out and admire it from time to time.

• However, when cards are used as loan collateral, tokenization is feasible—this is a huge value add for consumers, and for non-crypto-native TCG RWA protocols, this can be seen as transformative.

• That said, some investors participate purely for profit, not out of love for Pokémon or art—perhaps these non-crypto-native collectors can benefit from TCG RWA protocols. However, such solutions already exist, just without blockchain accounting technology.

• There are already gambling-like activities on traditional platforms—such as Whatnot. However, to add, the Gacha element in TCG RWA protocols is at least as good as, if not better than, Gacha on traditional platforms.

4. Just like tokens in the current crypto cycle, in the Pokémon card field, a rising tide does not necessarily lift all boats.

5. Just like tokens, there are blue chips, mid-tier tokens, and low-priced/meme coins, which have a small chance of skyrocketing, but most likely never will, and will just stay at a few cents/dollars.

6. Unlike mediocre meme coins or NFTs, quality Pokémon cards and sealed products never go to zero—this has always been the case in Pokémon TCG history (about 30 years).

7. Collectors have a subjective and personal emotional (sometimes even sentimental) connection with the art and Pokémon in Pokémon cards. This intangible factor is crucial and is a key differentiator between cards and tokens, stocks, or meme coins.

8. You can sell 1 bitcoin or 100 billions of meme coins today, and if the price soars tomorrow, you can easily buy them back on various exchanges. However, to give an extreme example, if I sell a Pikachu Illustrator card today (only 41 exist globally), I might have to wait months or even years for another chance to buy it back. (This leads to discussions about fungibility vs. non-fungibility, supply, trading venues, etc.)

So what?

On whether TCG RWA protocols are a necessary solution

If you read the above, you’ll find that for now, TCG RWA protocols haven’t really created anything revolutionary. Except for loans, they’re just like meme coins and NFTs, providing another gambling and trading channel for crypto-native non-collectors and crypto-native TCG collectors. However, such solutions already exist, so from a collector’s perspective, I don’t think TCG RWA protocols fill a gap that existing traditional solutions don’t already cover.

That said, I still believe TCG RWA protocols can (1) try to compete with existing traditional solutions, and (2) if blockchain technology is fully utilized, fill certain gaps. And I hope this happens, as it will only help this hobby and the crypto sector grow together.

On market cycles and how to handle collections

Given the market cycles, now that you know the Pokémon TCG market has boom and bust cycles, you might say it’s wise to take profits or sell part of your collection at some point.

I won’t sell. From a purely financial perspective, you can call me a fool, and I agree. However, to stress again, unlike crypto, if I sell something now, I may not be able to buy it back at the price I want immediately. Rare cards are hard to find, and owners are reluctant to sell.

Based on my entry time, I’m willing to take some losses because I entered very early. That said, just like in trading, entry and exit are important, and I consider this when handling cards or products in my collection. You should too, just like in trading.

What’s worrying is that crypto-native non-collectors who dabble in trading, once Pokémon cards stop bringing them big profits or the market crashes, will dump and abandon the hobby—because, like stocks or crypto, crypto-native non-collectors see these collectibles only as financial assets, not things with emotional connection. But I admit this is inevitable, just like any other market in bull and bear cycles, and I don’t mind.

When this narrative ends with the broader bull market or the Pokémon card bull cycle, this article will gradually be forgotten, and writing it may have been a waste of time. However, I believe the information here goes beyond the Pokémon card bull cycle, so if you wish, take a look.

Possible impact of Pokémon card RWA protocols on the Pokémon card market

Perhaps many crypto players trading crypto Pokémon cards actually have no emotional attachment to the cards themselves; they participate just for profit, gambling, or both.

Just like most hyped concepts in crypto, the craze won’t last, because most users of TCG RWA protocols are crypto users. And since many players trading crypto Pokémon cards have no emotional attachment to the cards, when the concept is no longer popular, the cards will be dumped, and the protocol tokens will be dumped as well—just like worthless meme coins and ordinary NFTs.

Cards dumped by users may be bought back by the protocol, but if the protocol can’t sustain itself due to reduced revenue, these cards may also be dumped by the protocol itself, or the founders may take their card inventory back to the traditional Pokémon TCG market.

This is why the hype/narrative of Pokémon card RWA may negatively impact the Pokémon card market, harming non-crypto-native Pokémon card collectors who don’t even know why. For newcomers, this could be a lesson, or they may abandon the hobby altogether. Similarly, for newcomers to crypto, if their first few on-chain experiences are FOMOing into $CARDS, and $CARDS drops after entry, they’ll be scared to participate in crypto.

That said, a counterpoint is: from a more macro perspective, the RWA sector of Pokémon cards is too small to have a long-term impact on such a huge TCG market. I agree with this too.

In any case, I hope this article inspires you. If not, at least I hope you gain something from it.

Tools: Pricing and Tracking Mechanisms for Cards/Products

How to evaluate card value/track prices when trading

Here’s how Pokémon card collectors/investors negotiate prices in practice, and the tools you can use—different people have different philosophies/methods, which may change based on their own circumstances:

1. Check the average of the last X completed transactions on eBay: This is the most commonly used method when trying to reach a deal in practice.

2. Aggregators: Price charts—may or may not be used in actual deals, but serve as a reference for evaluating card value during trades. However, compared to the above tool, it’s used much less frequently. I think it’s a convenient way to roughly check the price of ungraded cards (i.e., raw cards) or graded cards (i.e., slabbed cards).

3. Other aggregators – Collectr (mobile app): Same as above. Good for recording your cards and sealed products, buy and sell prices, and getting an overall estimate of your portfolio. There are other similar alternatives.

4. TCGPlayer—same as above. However, most quotes here reflect the price of ungraded raw cards or products, with conditions ranging from lightly used to near mint.

Defects/extra factors in TCG market pricing

TCG market pricing is different from the crypto market, where there are oracles referencing prices from major CEXs and DEXs—it’s more centralized. However, TCG market pricing is more fragmented.

Over the years, aggregators have been built to aggregate sold items from major markets like eBay. But note:

• Many “over-the-counter” (OTC) deals happen at card shows, Facebook Marketplace, Telegram/WhatsApp groups, and other informal markets, and are not tracked. Therefore, pricing remains somewhat fragmented and inefficient.

• Many people arbitrage between online and OTC/offline trades—vendors at card shows do this on a large scale, with their main income source similar to market makers or liquidity providers in crypto, earning the spread and relying mainly on volume and volatility.

• Although these aggregators have improved pricing, some manipulators still bid up prices in auctions to manipulate aggregator pricing, just to “raise the price of their own goods.”

Here are some typical participants/players in this hobby field:

1. Scalpers/resellers: Speculators. During boom cycles, many people flood into this hobby, and will leave just as easily as they came. You could say they are the least interested and passionate group. Some know little about Pokémon itself and are just here for profit.

2. Collectors/investors:

• Collectors/investors can play their own game their own way—a lot of these people can approach the hobby wisely and financially literate, with genuine passion and an investment perspective.

• Others may just collect and buy things with no value or appreciation potential, purely because they like them—and that liking itself is priceless.

• Just like traders, some may trade frequently in the short term, while others take a slow and steady or DCA approach. Some just keep buying and never sell, purely out of love.

3. Vendors: They appear at card shows, with varying degrees of love for cards. Most are passionate. You can see them as market makers/liquidity providers in crypto.

4. Distributors: If you know any distributors, these people are veterans and likely companies. They have direct connections with The Pokémon Company and can buy in bulk at low prices. These people supply sealed products to Pokémon Centers and some card shops. Becoming a distributor is mainly based on years of relationships and requires continuous purchases of Pokémon TCG products regardless of market conditions.

5. Dealers’ dealers: Similar to above, but without long-term operations. Could be B2B (e.g., supplying card shops) or B2C (e.g., selling to collectors/investors).

Hope the above information is helpful to you. As a veteran collector, I sincerely hope you can maintain this hobby even after the Pokémon craze ends. Just like crypto cycles, the end of the craze will prompt exits, but there will always be new entrants. If you’re only in it for the money, then good luck.