Your Social Security increase for 2026 is on track for a so-called "Trump Bump" — Here’s what additional amount you might receive

In May, Social Security's average monthly benefit for retired workers surpassed $2,000 for the first time ever. Although this amount isn't particularly high, it remains essential for many retirees to manage their living costs.

Gallup, the national polling organization, has spent nearly 25 years surveying retirees about how crucial Social Security is to their financial security. Their findings show that 80% to 90% of retirees depend on this major government program to pay their bills.

With almost 70 million people, including over 53 million retired workers, receiving traditional Social Security payments as of July, it’s no wonder that the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement in October is highly anticipated.

The COLA announcement for 2026 is expected to be different, as it will almost certainly be shaped by President Donald Trump’s trade and tariff policies. In short, recipients can likely expect a “Trump bump” starting in January.

How is Social Security's COLA determined?

Before examining the latest COLA projections, it’s important to understand what the COLA is and how it’s figured out each year.

The COLA’s main goal is to offset the impact of inflation. For example, if the cost of a broad selection of goods and services commonly bought by seniors rises by 2% from one year to the next, Social Security benefits are also supposed to go up by 2%, maintaining recipients’ ability to buy the same things. Most years, the COLA acts as an annual “raise” to adjust for higher costs.

For the first 35 years after the initial retired-worker check was sent out, Congress decided on COLAs sporadically and without a set formula. As a result, there were years when benefits stayed flat and didn’t keep up with inflation.

Starting in 1975, Social Security began using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) as its yearly inflation gauge. The CPI-W measures more than 200 separately weighted categories, making it possible to summarize monthly price changes to see if, overall, costs are going up (inflation) or down (deflation) compared to the previous year.

Although the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes CPI-W data every month, only the third-quarter months (July through September) are used to set the next year’s Social Security COLA. If the average CPI-W for those three months in 2025 is above the same period in 2024, benefit amounts will rise in 2026.

When there is an increase in the average third-quarter CPI-W from one year to the next, the percentage difference—rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent—becomes the COLA passed on to Social Security recipients for the following year.

A significant rise in inflation over the last four years has driven up COLAs. US Inflation Rate data by YCharts.

Close to 70 million Social Security recipients should see a Trump bump in 2026

Most beneficiaries hope for a generous COLA every year. Though the 2010s saw modest increases, the last four years have delivered above-average COLAs.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented federal stimulus and a historic increase in the U.S. money supply, which caused inflation to surge. From 2022 to 2025, Social Security COLAs were 5.9%, 8.7%, 3.2%, and 2.5%, respectively. For comparison, the average annual COLA since 2010 has been 2.3%.

If the 2026 Social Security increase is at least 2.5%, it will be the first time this century that five straight COLAs reach or exceed that level. According to two independent projections, this milestone is within reach.

After the BLS published July’s inflation figures, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan group advocating for older Americans, raised its 2026 COLA forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%. At the same time, Mary Johnson, a retired Social Security and Medicare policy expert formerly with TSCL, kept her estimate at 2.7% for the next year.

Projections from both TSCL and Johnson have climbed this year, in part due to the expected moderate inflationary push from President Trump’s trade and tariff measures.

On April 2, President Trump unveiled a sweeping 10% global tariff and higher “reciprocal tariffs” on dozens of countries with what the administration considers unfavorable trade balances. Although these reciprocal tariffs were suspended for 90 days after April 9, and several new trade agreements have since been reached, the tariffs are believed to be nudging prices up slightly overall.

One major worry about Trump’s tariff approach, according to a Liberty Street Economics study by four New York Federal Reserve economists, is that it does not distinguish between tariffs on finished goods ("output tariffs") and those on inputs used in domestic production ("input tariffs"). Input tariffs can make U.S. manufacturing more expensive by raising the cost of materials.

Although the exact COLA won’t be finalized until October 15, it’s widely expected that Trump’s tariff policy will contribute to a higher adjustment for 2026.

Projected Social Security benefit increases for 2026

What does a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment mean in terms of extra cash?

If TSCL and Johnson’s COLA forecasts of 2.7% for 2026 hold, the typical retired worker could see their monthly benefit go up by $54 next year. Meanwhile, average beneficiaries who are disabled workers or survivors would each get about $43 more per month in 2026.

While that might sound encouraging, most of the nearly 70 million people who get Social Security will likely still feel let down.

For one thing, retirees have been losing purchasing power since the early 2000s. TSCL data from 2010 to 2024 shows that the value of Social Security income for retired workers dropped by 20% over that period.

This significant decline stems from flaws in the CPI-W. Although people 62 and older make up 87% of Social Security recipients, the CPI-W focuses on the spending of urban wage earners and clerical workers—a group mostly composed of working-age individuals who don’t receive Social Security. As a result, important costs for retirees, such as housing and healthcare, are not given appropriate weight in the index. A 2.7% COLA won’t fix this issue.

Another complication for older beneficiaries is that higher Medicare Part B premiums will eat up much or all of their 2026 COLA increase. Part B covers outpatient healthcare services, and premiums are usually taken out of retired workers' Social Security payments each month.

The latest Medicare Trustees Report predicts a sharp 11.5% jump in the Part B premium, reaching $206.20 per month in 2026. For most beneficiaries, this means next year’s COLA will have little positive effect.

Regardless of any Trump bump, 2026 is shaping up to be another year of mixed results for retirees.