Bitcoin ( BTC 0.32%) is the most prominent cryptocurrency worldwide. At present, its $2.2 trillion market cap makes up over half of the $3.8 trillion total value of all cryptocurrencies on the market.
Currently, purchasing a single Bitcoin will set you back about $110,000. Earlier this year, MicroStrategy ( MSTR 2.44%) co-founder Michael Saylor stated in an interview that Bitcoin might climb to $13 million per coin by 2045. He later increased his forecast to $21 million during a June conference.
If Saylor's latest estimate comes true, anyone investing in Bitcoin now could see an extraordinary gain of 18,800% over the next two decades. But how feasible is that scenario?
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Bitcoin has the potential to reshape global finance
Up to now, Bitcoin hasn't gained significant traction as a payment method among consumers and businesses. Instead, its main appeal lies in being viewed by many investors as a reliable store of value—similar to digital gold—thanks to its decentralized design, limited supply, and secure, transparent blockchain ledger.
Michael Saylor believes that eventually, all assets will be tokenized on the blockchain to bring about greater efficiency and transparency. For instance, the lack of a centralized real estate register in the U.S. contributes to expensive legal costs and slow home purchases. Recording property transactions on the blockchain could, in principle, cut these expenses by making the process more transparent.
Saylor argues that Bitcoin is ideally suited as the reserve asset for this tokenized future, since its decentralized nature keeps it beyond the control of any single entity, government, or corporation. In his vision, Bitcoin would serve as the universal medium for buying, selling, and transferring tokenized assets, making ownership necessary for taking part in this new financial system.
While persuading every government globally to adopt regulations for this vision poses major challenges, Saylor is optimistic that the U.S. could take the lead under a crypto-friendly administration like Donald Trump's. He projects that by 2045, all $500 trillion of global assets could be migrated onto the blockchain, which would, in his estimate, push Bitcoin's price up to $21 million apiece.
There are major obstacles to this forecast
If Bitcoin's price reached $21 million per coin, its fully diluted market value would skyrocket to $441 trillion (assuming the maximum supply of 21 million coins), making it by far the most valuable single asset worldwide.
To put that in perspective, Bitcoin would be worth roughly 105 times more than Nvidia, the world's largest company with a market cap near $4.2 trillion. It would also be eight times more valuable than all 500 S&P 500 companies combined ( ^GSPC -0.32%), whose collective worth is $52.5 trillion.
This $441 trillion valuation would also be quadruple the entire world’s annual economic output, which totaled $111 trillion last year.
For these reasons, I find Saylor’s prediction highly implausible. Additionally, even if Bitcoin does serve as a bridge for tokenized assets, it might not significantly boost its price—since it's not widely accepted for everyday purchases, most people would likely exchange Bitcoin for fiat currency after transactions, ensuring a steady supply of sellers remains.
Moreover, it's improbable that most governments would support widespread Bitcoin adoption. Smaller nations often rely on weaker, floating currencies to help their exports stay affordable globally. Standardizing on Bitcoin as the world’s main currency would force developing countries like Vietnam to compete at the same level as economic giants like the U.S., which could severely impact their citizens’ quality of life.
Bitcoin could still rise, but perhaps not to Saylor's heights
Saylor’s firm, MicroStrategy (now known as Strategy), currently holds 636,505 Bitcoins valued at $71 billion, giving him plenty of motivation to keep making optimistic projections. Nevertheless, Bitcoin might remain a worthwhile investment, even if you doubt his most ambitious predictions.
As noted earlier, more investors now view Bitcoin as a credible store of value, with gold being its closest comparison. The combined value of all mined gold is about $24.4 trillion—if Bitcoin’s market cap rose to match gold’s, each coin would be priced at roughly $1,160,000, delivering a return of 945% from today’s level.
That target seems far more attainable. Still, it’s important to recognize that Bitcoin remains a speculative investment: it produces no income or profits, so its price depends entirely on what buyers are willing to pay, which is always uncertain.
