Platinum Price: How Geopolitical Strains and the Rise of Green Energy Are Transforming the Market

The platinum market stands at a pivotal moment, influenced by the rapid shift towards renewable energy and rising global tensions. As nations push to cut carbon emissions, platinum—traditionally prized for both its luxury appeal and industrial utility—is becoming increasingly vital in the development of the hydrogen sector and the expansion of electric vehicles (EVs). However, the metal’s supply chain faces significant challenges, including outdated mining infrastructure, unstable political environments, and a heavy reliance on China for refining. This situation presents investors with a unique dilemma: despite escalating demand and persistent supply shortages, platinum’s value compared to gold remains near historic lows, presenting both considerable risk and potential upside.

The Green Energy Driver: Hydrogen and EVs Fueling Growth

Platinum’s significance in the shift to cleaner energy is now front and center. By 2030, demand for platinum tied to hydrogen applications is expected to soar to 900,000 ounces each year—a 22.5-fold leap from 2023 figures. This increase is largely due to proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells, which depend on platinum as a catalyst to separate hydrogen from water. These cells are essential for powering hydrogen vehicles, especially in sectors like heavy freight and long-distance transport, where battery electric vehicles (BEVs) still fall short on weight and range.

At the same time, platinum’s use in catalytic converters for gasoline engines remains substantial. Despite the growth of BEVs, traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and hybrids still dominate new car manufacturing. A move to replace palladium with platinum in these systems—driven by tighter emissions rules and a dwindling supply of palladium—has further increased platinum consumption. Projections for 2025 show automotive demand reaching 3,052 kiloz, even as BEVs gain traction.

Supply Challenges and Geopolitical Instability

On the supply front, the outlook is more concerning. South Africa, the source for more than 70% of the world’s platinum, faces mounting difficulties. The number of operational mines has dropped from 81 in 2008 to just 53 by 2025, with power disruptions and labor issues severely hindering output. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) now anticipates a supply shortfall of 966,000 ounces for 2025—14% higher than previously estimated. Further complicating matters, China is responsible for refining 80% of the world’s platinum. Any interruptions in Chinese processing or international disputes could make shortages even worse.

Global divisions are also increasing. The U.S. and allied nations are actively working to decrease dependence on both Chinese refining and Russian platinum, which supplies about 10% of the global market. Sanctions on Russia have redirected its exports away from Western countries, resulting in differing price standards. Meanwhile, under the Trump administration, U.S. policy has focused on boosting domestic hydrogen infrastructure and encouraging platinum extraction, with lobbying groups like Ballard Partners and Mercury Public Affairs securing $19 million in the first quarter of 2025 to advance these priorities.

How to Invest: ETFs, Mining Companies, and Hydrogen Technologies

For those looking to invest, platinum offers a mix of volatility and long-term promise. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have emerged as a straightforward and liquid option to benefit from rising platinum prices. According to Goldman Sachs, platinum ETFs saw an unprecedented $500 million in inflows during the second quarter of 2025, as institutional investors sought both industrial growth and protection against broader economic risks. Still, the current platinum-to-gold price ratio of 1:12—its lowest point in history—raises debates about whether platinum is undervalued and due for a rebound.

Mining firms operating in politically stable countries have become more attractive. Companies based in Saudi Arabia and Brazil, for instance, are viewed as better equipped to handle supply chain disruptions than those dependent on South African or Russian mines. In addition, businesses developing hydrogen infrastructure, like Plug Power and ITM Power, are opening up new avenues for platinum demand. These organizations not only benefit from the global push for cleaner energy but also play a leading role in advancing PEM fuel cell technology.

A Strategic Perspective on Platinum Investment

Platinum has moved beyond its status as a niche commodity. It now serves as a key indicator for the world’s energy transition and a focal point in the contest for geopolitical influence. For investors, the challenge is to balance the risks of supply disruptions—like mine shutdowns, refining constraints, and international sanctions—against the increasing demand from the hydrogen and automotive industries.

Diversification is crucial. ETFs offer both liquidity and wide market exposure, while shares in mining companies located in stable areas present opportunities for growth. Meanwhile, hydrogen infrastructure enterprises are shaping the next wave of platinum consumption. As the global economy shifts towards lower carbon emissions, platinum’s importance as a catalyst—both in a chemical and strategic sense—will only increase.

In today’s divided global economy, platinum has come to represent not just a precious metal, but also resilience and forward-thinking innovation. For those prepared to navigate its complexities, the potential gains are significant.