Social Security's 2026 cost-of-living adjustment might see a "Trump Bump." Find out how much your payments could rise.

According to the Tax Foundation, tariffs implemented by President Trump have pushed the average tax on goods imported into the U.S. to the highest point since 1941. While inflation had previously been slowing, price increases began to accelerate after Trump introduced a 10% baseline tariff on most international imports in early April.

The Social Security Administration is set to reveal the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) this October. Retirees are on track to experience what some are calling a "Trump bump"—meaning their benefits will likely see a bigger rise next year than would have occurred without the significant changes in trade policy brought by the president.

Here’s what people receiving Social Security need to be aware of.

Tariffs are likely to give Social Security’s 2026 COLA a “Trump bump”

Each year, Social Security beneficiaries receive a cost-of-living adjustment to help their payments keep pace with inflation. The adjustment is based on the percentage increase in the CPI-W (a subset of the Consumer Price Index) during the third quarter of the year, which covers July through September.

To illustrate, the CPI-W rose by 2.5% in the third quarter last year, so Social Security payments increased by the same percentage this year. However, with the recent tariffs, CPI-W inflation started moving faster after President Trump’s actions—rising from 2.1% in April to 2.5% in July—putting next year’s COLA on track to be higher.

"Widespread tariffs on imports from many countries could have a deeply negative effect on seniors' everyday lives," said Shannon Benton, executive director of The Senior Citizens League (TSCL). "Like most economists, TSCL expects these tariffs to drive inflation even higher."

Because of this, TSCL—the country’s leading nonprofit organization advocating for seniors—has raised its 2026 COLA projection for five months in a row, from 2.2% in March to 2.7% by August. Essentially, the tariffs imposed during President Trump’s term might mean the COLA is about half a percentage point higher than it otherwise would have been.

This so-called “Trump bump” poses problems for two main reasons. First, COLAs are meant to restore purchasing power lost to inflation in the prior year, so retirees might face financial challenges during the rest of 2025 as prices rise more quickly. Second, since the 2026 COLA will be determined by CPI-W readings from July to September, any inflation that continues past that period won’t be factored into the adjustment, potentially leaving retirees with less buying power.

What the 2026 COLA estimate means for Social Security recipients

The Social Security Administration will issue the finalized 2026 COLA after the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September’s CPI-W numbers on Oct. 15. As previously noted, TSCL’s latest projection indicates benefits will rise by 2.7%, a figure also forecasted by the Social Security Board of Trustees earlier this year.

The following chart highlights the average Social Security payments for retirees, spouses, survivors, and people with disabilities as of July 2025, as well as how those monthly payments would change if a 2.7% COLA is applied in 2026.

Data source: Social Security Administration. The average benefits before the projected 2.7% COLA reflect the figures from July 2025.

As illustrated above, if Social Security benefits go up by 2.7% in 2026, the average retired worker would get an extra $54 per month (adding up to $648 over the year). However, should inflation persist beyond September due to ongoing tariffs, that extra income may not keep pace with rising costs, and retirees could actually feel like they have less money to spend in the coming year.