Bitcoin Is Poised to Follow Gold’s Journey Toward Central Bank Recognition by 2030

Deutsche Bank has published a study indicating that

could potentially be added to central bank reserves by 2030, standing alongside gold as a supplementary defense against inflation and global instability. The report points to Bitcoin’s decreasing price swings, evolving regulatory landscape, and broader macroeconomic patterns as central reasons it may join traditional safe assets. Although gold is projected to remain the cornerstone of official reserve assets—making up 57% of global reserves—Bitcoin’s distinctive features, like its capped supply and low correlation to conventional assets, could make it a useful tool for portfolio diversification title1 [ 1 ] title2 [ 2 ].

The bank’s analysis observes that in August 2025, Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility fell to record lows even as its price surpassed $123,500, suggesting the asset is transitioning from speculative trading to a more established investment class. Enhanced market liquidity and narrower spreads on institutional ETPs further reflect increasing institutional trust.

also pointed out that improvements in infrastructure, such as better custody options and clearer accounting practices, are crucial for central banks considering Bitcoin adoption title1 [ 1 ] title2 [ 2 ]. Regulatory developments in major regions, including the European Union’s MiCA regulatory regime, are anticipated to remove legal ambiguities and support wider acceptance title2 [ 2 ].

Regional trends in adoption will likely differ. In Latin America, where inflation and currency fluctuations are pressing concerns, Bitcoin could see more gradual uptake, while Middle Eastern countries might incorporate Bitcoin into their gold diversification portfolios. Meanwhile, in Asia, jurisdictions open to digital assets could spearhead new developments, even as major Asian central banks focus on maintaining financial stability. Although the United States leads in digital asset infrastructure, institutional barriers could slow its adoption. Nevertheless, former President Donald Trump’s proposal for a national Bitcoin reserve—aiming to accumulate up to 200,000 BTC per year—may spur global momentum and create new benchmarks for reserve management title7 [ 4 ].

Bitcoin’s effectiveness as a protection against inflation and a weakening dollar is emphasized by its limited supply, drawing parallels to gold’s rarity. Deutsche Bank’s asset correlation data from January 2025 found that Bitcoin had little connection to traditional assets such as equities and bonds, reinforcing its function as an independent hedge title7 [ 4 ]. The report also noted that China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $57 billion in 2024, a sign of increased diversification, with Bitcoin possibly serving as an alternative to reserves tied to the dollar title1 [ 1 ].

Despite these shifts, the U.S. dollar is expected to continue as the primary reserve currency, comprising 57% of global reserves, as nations focus on retaining monetary control. Neither Bitcoin nor gold is projected to overtake the dollar, but both may serve as supplementary hedges in a more fragmented global economy. Deutsche Bank’s research draws historical comparisons, suggesting that Bitcoin’s development resembles gold’s path from skepticism to mainstream acceptance. The report concludes that regulatory certainty, stable pricing, and robust derivative markets will be essential for Bitcoin’s entry into central bank holdings title2 [ 2 ].

The possibility of central banks adopting Bitcoin reflects a wider trend of diversifying reserve assets in response to geopolitical strife and economic unpredictability. While hurdles such as price volatility and custody remain, the report ultimately finds that Bitcoin’s inclusion in official reserves by 2030 is feasible, provided that advancements in market infrastructure and regulation continue title2 [ 2 ]. This transformation has the potential to reshape the international financial system, establishing Bitcoin as a recognized component alongside gold and the dollar.