Bitcoin’s recent decline indicates a reset period, with Swissblock highlighting the potential for a 20-30% upward surge
- Swissblock identifies Bitcoin's late-September 2025 dip as a "reset phase" precursor to 20-30% rallies, citing historical 2023-2024 patterns. - On-chain metrics show low volatility and bullish sentiment despite $110,000 support break, with institutional buying seen as key recovery driver. - Critical support levels at $110,000-$100,000 act as near-term catalysts, with stable derivatives markets reinforcing market resilience against systemic risks.

Swissblock’s review of Bitcoin’s price movement in late September 2025 points to a pivotal moment for the market, with the platform noting that a “risk-off signal” has
Recent figures reveal that 22% of altcoins are showing a negative impulse, which matches Swissblock’s historical range of 15-25% for market bottoms. This indicates a possible turning point for
Bitcoin’s recent price drop below the $110,000 mark—a psychological level that had held for several weeks—has drawn significant attention. Yet, Swissblock’s on-chain data analysis offers a different perspective from the usual bearish outlook. The platform’s unique Bitcoin Risk Index, which combines on-chain valuation and cost-basis information, remains close to zero, indicating low volatility and continued bullish sentiment despite a 5% decline over the week. This contrast between price movement and risk signals has led Swissblock to suggest that the dip represents a “buying opportunity” rather than a sign of broader market danger.
Institutional interest is seen as a major factor for Bitcoin’s next recovery phase. Although September’s price action outperformed expectations, ETF inflows slowed in the latter half of the month, pointing to a need for renewed institutional engagement. Swissblock attributes this to “typical late-cycle behavior” among long-term Bitcoin investors, who are gradually reducing their positions. Still, the lack of a high-risk environment means immediate bearish signals are absent, creating conditions where institutions might absorb the available discounted supply.
The platform’s outlook is consistent with historical trends identified by crypto analyst Lark Davis. Bitcoin’s 8% drop in late September is similar to declines seen in 2023 and 2024, both of which were followed by fourth-quarter rallies of 77% and 101%. This recurring “rektember” pattern suggests a seasonal tendency toward bullishness, with Swissblock forecasting a retest of the $110,000 level as a key short-term event. Should this support fail, the $105,500-$100,000 range could come into play, though Swissblock sees this as a “max pain” scenario likely to shake out short-term traders.
Swissblock and other analytics providers have pinpointed $112,000, $110,000, and the short-term holder cost basis at $111,400 as crucial support levels. These points represent a fragile equilibrium between bullish optimism and bearish pressure; sustained trading below $111,400 could signal a shift toward a more bearish outlook for the medium to long term. Meanwhile, institutional activity and derivatives markets remain steady, with funding rates and liquidation volumes staying within typical ranges, further supporting the view that a systemic downturn is unlikely.
This analysis highlights the need to separate short-term price swings from underlying market fundamentals. While Bitcoin has tested important psychological levels, the absence of a risk-off signal and the alignment of on-chain data with historical bullish trends point to a robust market structure. Institutional involvement and seasonal effects are expected to be decisive in whether Bitcoin reclaims its $120,000 high or consolidates within a broader trading band.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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