Bitcoin Consolidates as Exchange Reserves Fall, Supply Tightens
Contents
Toggle- Quick Breakdown
- Spot reserves decline, supply tightens
- Derivatives lead, spot activity lags
Quick Breakdown
- Bitcoin consolidates near $130K as short-term holders take profits, while exchange reserves drop to 2.49M BTC, signaling tightening supply.
- Spot outflows and accumulation trends support price recovery from $109K to $118K, though derivatives-driven momentum raises volatility risks.
- Sustainable upside depends on spot market participation, with on-chain data showing a growing divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin is consolidating within the short-term holder MVRV pricing corridor, a range that tracks the profitability of recent buyers. The upper boundary of this band, near $130,000, has become a profit-taking zone for short-term holders. Despite volatility, Bitcoin has held above its realized price level throughout 2024, underscoring persistent bullish sentiment and structural market strength.
Bitcoin in Equilibrium With Growth Potential to $130K
“The upper boundary of this range (+1σ) currently runs around $130K and serves as a zone where short-term holders more actively lock in profits.” – By @AxelAdlerJr pic.twitter.com/m1oJh4tj7U
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 2, 2025
Spot reserves decline, supply tightens
On-chain data highlights a clear trend in September: steady exchange outflows. Spot reserves dropped from 2.61 million BTC to 2.49 million BTC during the month, a decline that coincided with Bitcoin’s price recovery from $109,000 to $118,000. The contraction in exchange balances signals fewer coins readily available for trading, historically aligning with accumulation phases and a healthier market structure.
The tightening of supply provides a constructive backdrop for price action. With fewer BTC on exchanges, immediate selling pressure is reduced, creating conditions that support further upside. Analysts note that if this trend continues alongside stable ETF inflows and resilient futures open interest, the case for a push toward $130,000 strengthens.
Derivatives lead, spot activity lags
While supply dynamics favour bulls, the rally has been primarily derivatives-led. Futures activity dominates trading volumes, leaving spot volumes relatively muted. This concentration in leveraged markets raises sensitivity to funding shifts, open interest imbalances, and liquidation cascades, which could inject sharp volatility into the market’s trajectory.
Market observers caution that while falling spot reserves point to accumulation, the reliance on derivatives for price momentum means short-term swings remain closely tied to leverage dynamics. A sustainable move higher will likely require greater participation from spot markets to balance speculative flows.
Meanwhile, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows a growing divergence between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)—a development that may shape the next wave of capital rotation in digital assets . This time, reserves are flat, signaling that a significant portion of supply remains liquid and potentially available for selling.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Solana News Update: Institutional Interest Drives Solana ETFs Higher, While Token Value Declines
- CoinShares withdrew its staked SOL ETF application due to uncompleted structuring deals, complicating crypto ETF development in the U.S. - Competitors like Bitwise and Franklin Templeton launched successful staked SOL ETFs, amassing $918M in assets despite SOL's price stagnation below $150. - ETF inflows contrast with SOL's weak price action, hindered by technical issues and a bearish death cross pattern near $130 support level. - Institutional confidence persists through accumulation, but macroeconomic

XRP News Today: Regulatory Support Boosts RLUSD While XRP Faces Declining Technical Prospects
- XRP's 40% price drop contrasts with RLUSD's 56% surge in transaction volume to $3.5B, driven by institutional demand and regulatory approvals. - ADGM's recognition of RLUSD as a fiat-referenced token enables its use in collateral and lending, advancing Ripple's compliance-focused strategy in key financial hubs. - XRP remains below its 100-day EMA with bearish technical indicators, while RLUSD's 92.6% November issuance growth highlights its expanding role on the XRP Ledger. - Analysts suggest RLUSD's inst

Dogecoin Holds $0.1494 as Cost Basis Data Highlights Key $0.08–$0.20 Range

Why 8.3% Remains A Critical Barrier After 4 Fear And Greed Swings

