Bitcoin Updates Today: Fed Sends Conflicting Messages as Bitcoin Struggles at $85k—Is This a Bear Market or Just a Temporary Setback?

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Bitget-RWA2025/11/25 03:34

By:Bitget-RWA

- Bitcoin fell below $85k, triggering record ETF outflows as Fed policy uncertainty fuels volatility. - Mixed Fed signals from officials like John Williams and Beth Hammack deepen market jitters. - Analysts split between bearish cycles predicting $36k by 2026 and bullish targets up to $1.2M. - Investors use tax-loss harvesting, while Cramer criticizes crypto optimism amid 2018-like patterns. - Macroeconomic clarity on Fed rates and inflation will determine Bitcoin’s path in coming months.

Bitcoin has experienced heightened turbulence, plunging below $85,000 and igniting discussions about its short-term direction as Federal Reserve policies and investor sentiment evolve. The cryptocurrency has dropped more than 30% from its October high of $126,296, leading to unprecedented withdrawals from

Bitcoin

ETFs, with $3.5 billion exiting in November alone,

approaching the sector’s worst monthly outflow on record

. At the same time,

comments from New York Fed President John Williams about possible rate cuts in December

have added to the uncertainty, causing Bitcoin to briefly recover above $84,000 after a 10% drop overnight.

The Federal Reserve’s shift to a more dovish tone has further unsettled the market. Williams highlighted the potential for policy changes to balance inflation and employment, a stance that sharply contrasted with the more hawkish approach of Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who minimized labor market risks. These conflicting signals have left investors cautious,

with Bitcoin’s volatility mirroring the market’s heightened sensitivity to central bank uncertainty

Bitcoin Updates Today: Fed Sends Conflicting Messages as Bitcoin Struggles at $85k—Is This a Bear Market or Just a Temporary Setback? image 0

Market analysts and institutional investors remain divided on Bitcoin’s outlook. Some believe the cryptocurrency is entering a bearish phase, referencing the typical four-year cycle: a year-long bull run, followed by a year of decline and two years of recovery.

According to a Seeking Alpha report, Bitcoin could fall to $36,000

by 2026, suggesting weakness may persist until November of that year. On the other hand, optimistic views remain.

Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has adjusted its 2030 price forecast

from $1.5 million to $1.2 million but still holds a very bullish outlook, while Michael Saylor’s Strategy CEO continues to amass Bitcoin, with the company now holding 640,808 BTC and benefiting from a 7% price increase over the last quarter

as highlighted by Coindesk

The recent market upheaval has also exposed differing approaches among investors.

Jim Cramer’s recent criticism of crypto “cheerleaders”

has highlighted doubts about sustained bullish predictions, especially as Bitcoin’s current trend resembles its 2018 collapse. Meanwhile,

tax professionals are recommending that investors use losses

from the downturn to offset capital gains, with Forbes reporting that selling Bitcoin at a loss could lower taxable income by as much as $3,000 in 2025.

Bitcoin’s future direction will depend on greater macroeconomic certainty. With the Federal Reserve’s December rate announcement approaching and inflation still above 2%, the market remains split.

A Bloomberg analyst observed that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio

—which measures risk-adjusted returns—has dropped significantly, indicating rare but potentially rewarding opportunities for those anticipating a rebound. As Bitcoin fluctuates between $80,000 and $85,000, the coming months will reveal whether this is merely a cyclical pullback or the start of a more prolonged bear market.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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