Preview: At 9:30 PM tonight, the US will release September retail sales data, which may strengthen expectations for a rate cut in December.

ChainCatcher reports, at 9:30 PM Beijing time on Tuesday, the U.S. Census Bureau will release the U.S. retail sales data, often referred to as the "scary data." This data release was delayed for over a month due to the government shutdown, and it is expected to show that consumer spending slightly slowed down in September. This may indicate that, after months of inflation shocks, American households may have reached their spending limit. In addition, as many employers have scaled back hiring, the risk of a cooling in consumer spending remains.

According to the median forecast from a Bloomberg survey, economists expect retail sales in September to grow by 0.4%, compared to a 0.6% increase in the previous month. Bloomberg economists noted that labor market conditions slightly improved after hitting a low point in the summer. However, the partial federal government shutdown in October brought new shocks to hiring and consumer spending. "Overall, we believe the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in December, and it probably should do so to sustain the fragile recovery that began in the summer."