Asia's oil products market diverges, with differing trends in high- and low-sulfur fuel oil and gasoline/diesel

⑴ On Tuesday, the spot premium for Asian high-sulfur fuel oil remained steady and firm compared to last week, but the market structure showed further signs of slowing down, with the February-March spread falling to around $17 per ton. ⑵ The transaction price for ultra-low sulfur fuel oil shipped via floating storage units remained basically stable and continued to be at a discount, with prompt months maintaining a stable positive spread pattern. ⑶ In terms of crack spreads, the 380-cst high-sulfur fuel oil crack spread closed at around a $4.65 per barrel discount, while the VLSFO crack spread remained at a premium of around $4.50 per barrel. ⑷ There are ongoing tender procurement activities for low-sulfur fuel oil for April delivery, with the tender closing on Tuesday. ⑸ The spot premium for Asian diesel remains strong, with the spot spread for early March cargoes reflecting a rising premium, and the backwardation for prompt months still holding above $1. ⑹ Diesel crack spreads have remained largely unchanged, with premium levels staying below $20 per barrel. For jet fuel, the arbitrage window between Asia and the US West Coast remains closed, limiting market recovery, although the intermonth spread has slightly improved. ⑺ Gasoline crack spreads have risen to their highest level since January 21, climbing to $7.76 per barrel over Brent crude. Market sentiment suggests that, given strong demand during the holidays and Ramadan, the outlook appears robust. ⑻ The naphtha market crack spread over Brent crude rose by $4 to $103.35 per ton. ⑼ Overall, the crack spreads, spot premiums and discounts, and intermonth spread trends for different oil products have diverged, reflecting the impact of regional supply and demand fundamentals, arbitrage windows, and seasonal demand differences.