AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Loses ground below 113.00, bullish vibe remains intact

The AUD/JPY cross loses traction to around 112.90 during the early European session on Wednesday. Japan's stronger-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth data for the first quarter (Q1) underpins the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

The Japanese economy grew at an annualized 2.1% in Q1 of 2026, according to preliminary Cabinet Office data released on Tuesday. This figure followed 1.3% growth prior, above the market consensus of 1.7%. Meanwhile, Japan’s GDP expanded 0.5% QoQ in Q1, compared to a 0.3% growth seen in Q4 of 2025. This figure came in stronger than the expectation of a 0.4% expansion. 

On the Aussie front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes showed on Tuesday that eight of nine board members backed the May rate hike to 4.35%, citing rising inflation risks from the Gulf conflict. One member preferred to await further data. 

However, RBA Meeting Minutes highlighted growing concerns that global energy shocks and Middle East tensions could fuel domestic inflation and hurt broader economic growth. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the AUD against the JPY. 

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds well above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the broader structure constructive despite price now sitting just under the Bollinger middle band, which acts as the first cap. A softening Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 hints that upside momentum has cooled without yet overturning the prevailing uptrend.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 113.65, with the upper band around 114.88 marking a stronger barrier if bulls regain control. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the lower Bollinger band at 112.45, ahead of the March13 low of 111.47, while the 100-day SMA at 110.52 remains a deeper but important floor guarding the broader bullish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)