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Golden Ten Data reported on March 29 that Wang Zhe, economics professor at Beijing Normal University, stated that historically, the duration and magnitude of oil price increases triggered by Middle East conflicts still depend on the evolution of the geopolitical situation. According to the current situation, the scale of the supply shock may exceed previous levels. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could result in a supply gap accounting for 15% to 20% of global supply. Moreover, geopolitical uncertainty is higher, the risk of conflict spilling over continues to escalate, and there is even a risk of turning into a full-scale conflict across the Middle East. The market’s panic sentiment is stronger than during local wars in history. Regarding future oil prices, if the conflict maintains its current intensity, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the Houthi armed group continues harassment but does not completely block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and there is no major diplomatic breakthrough, oil prices are likely to stay above $100. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, both core routes are interrupted at the same time, and the conflict spreads to more countries, then prices will certainly continue to rise. If there is a major diplomatic breakthrough and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, oil prices could quickly fall below $100.

21:00 (UTC+8) - 7:00 Keywords: Canada, Polymarket, Michael Saylor1. The last co-founder of xAI has reportedly left the company;2. Tokenization platform xStocks launches a new on-chain private equity fund;3. Canada plans to ban the acceptance of cryptocurrency donations during election campaigns;4. Institutions: After a slowdown in February, the US job market may gradually recover this month;5. Messari releases a valuation report on Polymarket, valuing it as high as 100 billion USD;6. Michael Saylor posted, “It's time to put the laser eyes back on,” which is suspected to be a bullish signal.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 29 that employment in the United States may have picked up in March, following one of the largest declines in job numbers since the pandemic. Economists estimate that after a reduction of 92,000 jobs, 60,000 jobs were added this month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4%. Since May last year, employment figures have not shown monthly growth, indicating a lack of significant hiring momentum in the labor market, though there are no signs of worrying deterioration either. Against this backdrop of limited job opportunities, the war in the Middle East has reignited American concerns over inflation due to a sharp rise in gasoline prices. Economists noted that after disappointing February employment data—where jobs in construction and the leisure and hospitality sectors may have declined due to weather conditions—employment is expected to rebound in March. With over 30,000 workers at Kaiser Permanente ending their strike, employment in the healthcare sector may also see growth.

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