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Glonhui June 18th｜Elon Musk converted part of his stock options into shares that carry immediate voting rights but cannot be sold until 2028, thereby increasing his voting power in Tesla to 20%. Securities filings show that shortly after SpaceX completed its initial public offering (IPO) last week, Musk fulfilled an agreement reached with Tesla in April this year by converting around 300 million unexercised options from his 2018 compensation package. This unusual transaction means Musk did not thereby acquire additional ordinary Tesla shares. Instead, he obtained restricted stock that will vest on January 19, 2028, which is also the original expiration date of these options. However, a filing published on Wednesday indicates that these instruments “carry voting rights exercisable by Musk.” He surrendered 17.5 million shares to cover the approximately $7.1 billion in option exercise costs. After the transaction, Musk holds about 700 million Tesla shares, including those held through trusts. In a securities disclosure, he stated that this represents approximately 19.9% of currently outstanding shares.

1. A corporate survey shows that nearly all Japanese companies are concerned about the outlook for purchasing oil and related products, despite the government's repeated assurances that supply is not an issue. 2. The same survey also found that about 30% of Japanese companies regard the potential risk of advanced AI models being misused as the top issue that needs to be addressed.

Whether it’s value-oriented strategies or commodity assets such as gold, performance under ongoing external disturbances has been unsatisfactory, posing a certain challenge to multi-asset investments. Since the beginning of this year, numerous FOF products adopting multi-asset strategies have recorded negative returns. Many underlying funds heavily held by FOFs, such as gold and dividend-themed ETFs, have generally performed below expectations. Although some assets have underperformed this year, professional investors see this as evidence of the cyclical nature of asset rotation, suggesting that dynamic balancing is preferable to static diversification in such an environment. For example, maintain a moderately positive tilt in equity investments, structurally focusing more on growth directions supported by industry trends, while also considering high-quality value assets with reasonable valuation safety margins; gold assets, given global geopolitical factors, fiscal expansion, and long-term asset allocation demand, continue to provide diversification benefits to portfolios, making them more suitable for strategic allocation rather than tactical trading tools.

Investors are assessing policy signals from the US Federal Reserve (hinting that rates may rise this year) as well as details of the temporary ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran. Following the announcement, the US Dollar Index soared to its highest level in more than two months, putting pressure on Latin American currencies. The MSCI Index tracking Latin American currencies fell by 0.6%, while the Latin American stock index dropped by 0.9%. The Mexican peso was the biggest loser, declining by 1.2% and is set for the largest single-day drop in over a week. Expand

According to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": There is a 44.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged by October, a 44.3% probability of raising rates by at least 25 basis points, and an 11.6% probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points. By December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.5%, the probability of at least a 25 basis point hike is 83.1% (compared to 59.4% the previous day), and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 1.4%.