Gold: Are Market Bulls Seeing $4,600? But the Chart Shows It May Fall to $3,800 First

Gold is caught between two narratives. Deutsche Bank has just reaffirmed its year-end target of $4,600, while its fair-value model is near $4,700. However, the daily chart tells a different story: price is below a declining moving-average ribbon, RSI is flat at 46.5, and the $4,050 support level is quietly weakening.

The gap between the bullish $4,600 scenario and the technical projection of $3,800 is not a contradiction—it is where the trade lies.

📊 Why This Matters Now

Spot gold declined 0.3% on Monday to approximately $4,030, while August gold futures fell 0.4% to $4,090.50. Three forces are converging this week:

• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but three officials dissented from the decision with hawkish views. Markets are currently pricing in approximately a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September.

• Brent crude rose by more than 20% last month as tensions between the United States and Iran intensified again. Higher oil prices = persistent inflation = interest rates staying higher for longer.

• Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report (NFP) will be the next directional catalyst.

John Williams said that he would be prepared to raise rates if inflation fails to cool. This is not a neutral Federal Reserve—it reflects a tightening bias standing in front of a non-yielding asset.

📉 Core Thesis: The Chart Favors $3,800

On the daily chart, gold is trading below a declining moving-average ribbon. The yellow and cyan moving averages are positioned overhead, confirming that the short-term trend structure is bearish. Price is near $4,057, but there are no signs of expanding bullish momentum.

Key levels:

• Immediate resistance: $4,061–$4,067

• Secondary resistance: $4,089–$4,106

• Major resistance: $4,143 → $4,201 → $4,382

• Near-term support: $4,050–$4,053

• Lower support: approximately $3,945

• Downside target range: $3,700–$3,800

RSI is at 46.5—within neutral territory, but it still has room to fall toward 30 before a technical rebound would typically emerge.

if the daily candle closes decisively below $4,050, the price will open a path toward $3,945. If selling pressure accelerates alongside a stronger dollar, the $3,700–$3,800 zone could come into play. Notably, this is exactly the lower bound identified by Deutsche Bank’s own reverse ADF test. The bank’s model acknowledges that $3,700 is a reasonable scenario within the same framework that also produces the $4,600 target.

⚠️ Risk: What Would Invalidate This View

For the bearish structure to fail, gold needs to reclaim and hold above $4,061–$4,106. If a sustained breakout occurs, the targets would be $4,143, followed by $4,201. A clear recovery above $4,200 would invalidate the bearish setup and indicate that the long-term uptrend has resumed.

Until then, the overall structure remains fragile.

🎯 Bottom Line: Watch $4,050 This Week

The key level is $4,050:

• Holding above it → the consolidation range remains intact; watch whether price can reclaim $4,061–$4,106.

• A decisive close below it → the first target is $3,945, followed by the projected $3,700–$3,800 zone.

• Reclaiming $4,106 → momentum shifts back to the upside, with targets at $4,143 and $4,201.

The market is pricing in $4,600 as the destination, but the chart suggests that the path there may first pass through $3,800. Watch $4,050—especially after Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

This analysis represents a technical and macroeconomic framework and is not financial advice. Contracts for difference (CFDs) involve substantial risk. Please use appropriate position sizing and risk-management strategies.