Exclusive Analysis: This Week's Biggest Event! NFP Data Incoming, Inflation Beast Forces Fed to Turn "Hawkish"—Is Market Chaos About to Unfold?

This week, the eyes of the global financial market will be completely locked on the June US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, set to be released this Thursday (July 2)!

As a Bitget analyst, I must remind everyone: this is not just an employment report; it is the ultimate verdict that will determine the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy trajectory for the second half of the year. Facing the extreme scenario of "steady employment and soaring inflation," Wall Street has already begun placing massive bets. Gold and US stock indices are about to experience immense volatility and trading opportunities!

Data Preview: Resilient Labor Market, Inflation Approaching 3-Year Highs

Based on current data and institutional forecasts, the US economy is at a delicate crossroads:

• NFP Expectations: UK research firm Continuum Economics predicts that June's new non-farm employment will be around 115,000. Although this falls short of May's figure of 172,000, which far exceeded expectations (with April also revised up to 179,000), the resilience of the labor market remains astonishing.

• Unemployment Rate & Wages: The unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4.3% for the fourth consecutive month, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.3% month-over-month, indicating that public income remains stable.

• Inflation Alarms Blaring: What gives the Fed the biggest headache is that the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, released on the same day, directly breached 4%, hitting a 3-year high! Coupled with last week's initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropping to 215,000, all of this tells the market: Americans don't lack jobs, but prices are spinning out of control!

🦅 The Fed Turns Fully "Hawkish": Is a September Rate Hike the Wall Street Consensus?

Facing stubbornly high inflation, Fed official Warsh showcased a tough hawkish stance in his recent policy meeting debut. He explicitly stated that the current labor market is "developing in a positive direction," making the fight against inflation and the stabilization of prices the absolute priority. In the June policy statement, phrasing that hinted at a tendency to cut rates was even directly removed.

This hawkish chill immediately swept across Wall Street, with major investment banks rapidly revising their forecasts:

• Bank of America (BofA): A massive reversal in attitude! They expect the Fed to hike rates consecutively in September, October, and December of this year, totaling an increase of 75 basis points.

• Deutsche Bank: Predicts two rate hikes this year (25 bps each in September and December). They believe the FOMC has forged a hawkish consensus and do not even rule out a move as early as July. Furthermore, both BofA and Deutsche Bank believe the Fed will stand pat next year, with Deutsche Bank expecting the rate cut cycle to be delayed until 2028.

Analyst Perspectives: The "Calm Before the Storm" for Gold and Indices

Under the dual pressure of "stubbornly high inflation + rising rate hike expectations," this Thursday's NFP data will serve as the fuse to ignite market action:

1. Gold (XAU/USD): Rate hike expectations typically boost the US Dollar and Treasury yields, putting immense downward pressure on non-yielding gold. However, inflation breaching 4% will also stimulate the market's demand for inflation hedging. Bulls and bears will clash fiercely the moment the NFP is released, making gold highly susceptible to volatile "whipsaw" price action!

2. US Stock Indices (Nasdaq, etc.): Rate hike expectations will compress the valuations of tech stocks and the broader market, but strong employment data also signifies that economic fundamentals remain solid. If NFP data beats expectations, indices may face a sharp short-term plunge; if it meets or falls below expectations, we could see a retaliatory rally.

🚀 Don't Miss the NFP Action—Seize Your Profit Opportunities on Bitget!

On NFP night, volatility is a trader's best friend! Whether you are bullish or bearish, Bitget provides you with a top-tier trading experience.

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👉 Click here to head to Bitget now to trade Gold and Global Indices, and tackle the massive NFP market moves!