Bitcoin, Or, Dollar… Investors Are Repositioning Ahead Of The Fed

For several weeks, brutal corrections are no longer the norm for Bitcoin. Instead, a slow rise in strength is taking place. Volatility persists, but the drops no longer break key levels. Many analysts no longer hesitate to consider a bullish surge for the queen of cryptocurrencies. They rely on an explosive cocktail: uncertain monetary policy, discreet liquidity injection, and weakening of the US dollar.

Bitcoin Defies FOMC Expectations

Despite an imminent FOMC meeting, the bitcoin price is trading above 95,000 dollars. This symbolic threshold was not reached by chance. It reflects a well-established momentum, strengthened by market expectations. The consensus is betting on rate maintenance in the 4.25–4.50% range, but the market is mainly watching Jerome Powell’s tone. The slightest shift towards a more dovish speech could unleash a new bullish momentum.

In March, a surprise pause in rates was enough to propel BTC beyond $87,000. Today, even without a cut, the signals are there . According to King Baldwin:

A dovish tone could bring Bitcoin back towards 100,000 dollars.

The bond market reinforces this thesis. The probability of a rate below 4% by September has dropped from 90% to 76%. This retreat reflects revised but not erased expectations. Caution dominates, but speculation is organizing.

FOMC rate estimate for the September 17 decision. Source: CME FedWatch

When the Fed Injects Without Admitting It

Behind the apparent calm, the Fed acts. On May 5, it repurchased $20.5 billion of Treasury bonds. This operation via SOMA looks very much like disguised quantitative easing. The analyst @MDBitcoin does not mince words :

This is not a market. This is not a buyer. It is an automatic monetary backstop.

The dollar weakens, gold climbs 12% over 30 days. Bitcoin then becomes a logical haven in 2025. Macro signals converge towards an unstable situation: persistent inflation, massive debt, and incoherent monetary policy.

Jim Paulsen reminds us:

Every time the Fed Funds rate exceeds the neutral rate, a recession looms.

The American economy staggers, and traditional Treasury buyers retreat. The Fed must absorb the issuances. This mechanism creates a loop: money creation, revival of rare assets, return of inflation. Bitcoin, by its nature, frees itself from this loop. Its rarity and independence place it in contrast to the dollar. As long as this mechanism persists, buyers will continue to see a credible escape in it.

Technical and Macro Data: The Numbers Speak

Market data supports this momentum. The majority of technical and fundamental signals point to a continued upward trend. The dollar index (DXY) fell below 100 for the first time since July 2023. Gold flirts with $3,500, near its all-time high. Real rates remain high, but the 3.7% yield on US bonds no longer finds buyers.

SOMA becomes the buyer of last resort. Institutional investors retreat to rare assets.

Here are the key data to remember:

• BTC trades around $95,000 with short-term potential at $100,000;
• DXY below 100: structural weakening of the dollar;
• 76% chance of rate ≤ 4% by September;
• Gold +12% over 30 days, near record level;
• 60% probability of recession (Kalshi source).

In this context, bitcoin stands out as an escape. It is seen as a crisis-resistant asset, a refuge against monetary dilution, and a tool for individual protection. This positioning has been built up through crises and now seems internalized by a large part of the market.

Currently, 88% of bitcoin holders are in a winning position . Only purchases made above $95,000 show a loss. This strengthens the idea that the market is structurally bullish. The economic environment continues to favor rare assets. The Fed hesitates, bitcoin advances.