Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis: The Value Evolution Cipher in Four Halving Events

Original Article Title: "Bitcoin Value Trend Study: Value Evolution Cipher of Four Halvings"

Original Article Authors: SanTiLi, Nasita, Legolas

Abstract:

This article will focus on the four halving events of Bitcoin from 2012 to 2024, systematically review Bitcoin's halving mechanism, inflation rate change trends, and combine the market performance before and after each halving to explore in depth the impact of halving on price trends. Through historical data analysis and macro comparison, this article points out that Bitcoin has now entered a period where its inflation rate is lower than that of gold, its scarcity is becoming more prominent, gradually possessing a long-term value logic that can counter traditional assets. At the same time, from the perspective of the four halving cycles, although the increase since the 2024 halving has been moderate, it is still in a phase of accumulation, and the real window may gradually open between 2025 and 2026. The article concludes by discussing the core value foundation of Bitcoin, including scarcity, decentralized mechanism, and deflation model, indicating that its logic as "digital gold" is increasingly maturing.

1. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Base Reward and Inflation Rate:

Bitcoin, designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, has a total fixed supply of 21 million coins. In the early days, for every successfully mined block, miners could receive 50 BTC as a reward. This reward is halved approximately every 210,000 blocks (about four years) to gradually reduce the new issuance.

   The halving cycle of BTC officially began in 2012, halving every four years. In the 2024 halving, each block reward is 3.125 BTC, with an annual inflation of: 52,560 x 3.125 = 164,250 coins, accounting for approximately 0.782% of the total supply. The inflation rate of around 0.78% is already lower than the annual inflation rates of most developed countries, and the total inflation rate of gold mining production is between approximately 1.5% to 2%. Currently, BTC has entered a period where its inflation rate is lower than that of gold.

Fig.1 Bitcoin Halving Cycle Reward and Inflation Chart

As shown in the chart: when each block has a reward of 50, the annual increase is approximately: 52,560 x 50 = 2.628 million coins, accounting for 12.5% of the total 21 million supply. However, as of 2025, with a reward of 6.25 per block, the annual increase is: 52,560 x 6.25 = 32.85 thousand, accounting for approximately 1.564% of the total 21 million supply.

As of around 14:00 on May 7, 2025, approximately 19,861,268 BTC have been mined, accounting for about 94.58% of the total. The total market value is approximately $2 trillion ($2,034,300,009,004). Compared to the last halving cycle in 2020, around 18,385,031 BTC were mined at that time, accounting for about 87.5% of the total, with a total market value of $161.8 billion. After about 5 years, the total market value has increased by approximately 1236%.

The inflation rate for each of the next 4 years is only 0.782%.

Fig.2 Comparison of Inflation Rates in Major Global Countries from 2019 to 2025

In 2019, China had an inflation rate of about 2.9%, and the United States had an inflation rate of 2.3%. Due to the COVID-19 relief in 2020, we predict that the substantial issuance of the U.S. dollar subsidy will significantly increase the inflation rate from 2020 to 2022. The inflation rate in the United States did indeed reach a high of 8%, then gradually declined due to the Fed's interest rate hike policy. By 2024, it had fallen to around 2.2%, and China's annual inflation rate is about 0.2%, performing well in controlling inflation among major countries (2019–2024: data from official statistics agencies in each country. 2025: Data is from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report and updated forecast). Most developed countries have statistics around 2.5%, but the actual experience of shopping and currency devaluation should feel significantly higher than the statistical data.

At this time, this Bitcoin halving will once again halve BTC's inflation rate, entering a new historical low inflation level of 0.782%. In principle, a lower inflation rate is not a bad thing for any asset, as it further increases scarcity. However, this does not necessarily mean that the asset's value will increase by 100% in the short term, but it is a significant factor in hedging against depreciation.

II. Comparative Analysis of Bitcoin's Market Performance After 4 Halvings:

Since Bitcoin's inception, every block reward halving has had a profound impact on BTC's market price. From 2012 to 2024, the four halving events exhibited some relatively consistent cyclical characteristics. By comparing the market price trends before and after each halving in detail, this article also extracts some valuable rules of thumb for readers. History never repeats itself exactly, but there are always similar patterns before reaching the peak or the brink of destruction.

Fig.3 BTC Price Change Data Chart for Four Halving Cycles

The chart in Fig.3 shows the trend data for BTC's four halving events, the first year after each halving, and the trend of the price reaching its highest point within the cycle. As shown in the chart, after each halving, the price of Bitcoin has experienced significant increases. Taking the closing price on the halving day as a reference, the price surged by over 8000% in the year following the 2012 halving, approximately 286% in 2016, about 475% in 2020, while the price increase in the year following the 2024 halving is only around 31% (with the highest point so far being 68.75% at $109,588).

1. Generally, Significant Gains Are Already Seen in the First 6 Months Before the Halving

Looking back at the four halving events, Bitcoin has usually started trending upwards in the first half-year leading to the halving. For example:

· During the 2012 halving, the price had increased by 141.03% compared to six months earlier

· During the 2024 halving, the price had increased by 118.88% compared to six months earlier

This phase often corresponds to the gradual pricing in of the "halving expectation" by the market, providing a strong signal value for preparation.

2. The 6-12 Months After the Halving Are the Core Growth Period, But Not Necessarily the Peak

Historical data from three cycles all indicate that the 6-12 months after the halving represent the primary uptrend of Bitcoin:

· 2012: Price surged by 8181.51% after one year

· 2016: Price surged by 286.29% after one year

· 2020: Price surged by 475.64% after one year

· 2024: Currently under a year, with a surge of 31.18% so far, reaching a high of 68.75% ($100.9k)

Especially in 2012 and 2020, a typical "consolidation within six months followed by a breakout" pattern emerged. Roughly a year later, they entered a major breakout phase, reaching a historical high. The 2024 halving just passed the one-year mark, and if history repeats, the true breakout phase might open between 2025 and Q1 2026.

3. The First Year After the Halving Provides Preliminary Trend Identification Significance

After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin saw a 10.02% rise within a month, followed by two months of volatile consolidation, indicating an overall accumulation phase. By October 2024 (half a year after the halving), the price had only slightly risen by 6.30% compared to the halving day, far from entering the primary uptrend. However, this pattern is not uncommon throughout history, as both 2016 and 2020 only kicked off their rallies half a year after the halving.

4. The Peak of Each Bull Market Cycle Mainly Occurs 6-12 Months After Halving

Based on data from the previous three cycles, the price highs relative to the closing price on the halving day have mainly occurred in the mid-term following the next halving:

· 2012: Highest Increase 9237.15%

· 2016: Increase 2825.84%

· 2020: Increase 700.28%

In this cycle, after the 2024 halving, a phase high of $109,588 has already been reached, representing a 68.75% increase from the halving day, but it has not yet entered the exponential growth stage. This pattern only applies to this cycle because after this cycle ends, if BTC can reach a value as high as 300-500k or even around 1 million, its valuation volume would be very substantial. In the next halving, unless it is based on reference to a depreciated anchor asset or further expansion through applications, such as interstellar exploration, it will be difficult to see another multiple-fold growth.

Chart Summary:

Bitcoin's historical halving cycles have shown a highly consistent three-stage rhythm:

Accumulation Rise (first 6 months pre-halving) → Stable Oscillation (6 months post-halving) → Main Uptrend Surge (6-18 months post-halving) The 2024 halving is approaching one year, indicating that the market may still be building up energy for a later surge. Similar to the eve of 2017, coincidentally also in the early days of the Trump administration. Meanwhile, the Stock-to-Flow chart indirectly assists our perspective on the still accumulating reference value. However, historical data and patterns are only for reference and should not be blindly followed; one must also have enough self-judgment and conduct DYOR.

Fig.4 Bitcoin Price Stock-to-Flow Chart

III. BTC's Inherent Long-Term Value Scientific Attributes:

An asset's value comes from consensus and intrinsic value, and long-term consensus must come from its inherent advancement, scientific attributes, and irreplaceable pioneering nature. Bitcoin (BTC) is not just a cryptographic asset but also an innovative outcome at the intersection of various disciplines such as technology, economics, mathematics, and cryptography. Its long-term value is not sustained solely by market speculation but is built upon a tightly integrated, verifiable, and tamper-resistant system design.

1. Scarcity:

As mentioned earlier, the total supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million, a protocol set by Satoshi Nakamoto in the underlying code, and gradually released through a halving mechanism tied to block rewards. The halving occurs approximately every four years, with all coins expected to be minted by around 2140. In contrast to fiat currencies with infinite inflationary mechanisms, Bitcoin exhibits a natural deflationary feature, supporting its long-term value proposition from a supply-demand perspective.

The design of scarcity is a key pillar of Bitcoin's anti-inflationary nature, establishing its foundation as the "digital gold."

2. Decentralization: Consensus Mechanism Safeguarding Network Neutrality

The Bitcoin network relies on the decentralized PoW (Proof of Work) consensus mechanism provided by hashing power, allowing any node to validate transactions and participate in ledger maintenance. This structure effectively mitigates issues found in traditional financial networks, such as centralized single points of failure, abuse of power, and centralized control. Its significant globalized decentralization also largely mitigates scenarios of a 51% attack.

3. Deflationary Model against Fiat Currency Devaluation

As illustrated in Fig. 2, Bitcoin's inherent deflationary issuance model sharply contrasts with the inflationary structures of fiat currencies worldwide. Particularly amidst the backdrop of massive quantitative easing and currency debasement by global central banks since 2020, Bitcoin has gradually proven itself as a hedge against fiat devaluation and asset bubble risks. BTC is increasingly becoming the global safe haven asset in an era of declining trust in fiat currencies.

4. Technological Attributes: Advanced Cryptography + Peer-to-Peer Network Design

Bitcoin incorporates several cutting-edge technologies:

· Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA): Ensures account security and private key signatures

· SHA-256 Hash Algorithm: Ensures data immutability

· Merkle Tree Structure: Facilitates efficient transaction validation within blocks

· P2P Peer-to-Peer Network: Enables global value transfer without intermediaries

The combination of these core technologies makes Bitcoin an immensely robust and tamper-proof value transfer network, with inherent scalability to support future layer-two expansions (such as the Lightning Network and ecosystem applications). BTC is not just an asset but also a masterpiece of cryptographic engineering. Anticipated quantum resistance updates further signal a promising outlook for the future.

5. Challenger of the Global Financial Order: The Alternative Consensus Asset of Dollar Trend Change

The world is currently experiencing a wave of de-dollarization: settlements between countries are beginning to shift towards local currency, gold, and decentralized assets. Bitcoin, with its non-sovereign neutrality, globalization, scarcity, and other characteristics, has become an important channel for asset transfer and storage in emerging markets and tumultuous countries. It has established a new financial order model that coexists with but is independent of the US dollar and gold — the "neutral system of consensus currency." When the "credit of certain countries" is difficult to trust, relying on objective algorithmic credit will become a moat between countries, of course, requiring further intervention by national regulatory authorities to prevent frequent illegal activities.

6. Potential Financial Infrastructure of Interstellar Civilization (currently not applied, belongs to individual exploration viewpoints)

Bitcoin is currently the only value protocol that does not rely on any country, # bank, or # Internet entity. Its ledger can exist at any node between planets, requiring only electricity and computing power to maintain the network. This structure is naturally suitable for future space exploration scenarios, such as exploring Mars or the Moon, for rapid and direct use and application. However, as human exploration of outer space is still in its early stages, stable landing and arrival have not yet had any major breakthroughs, so this point is limited to individual fantasies. But if we look at a 30-50 year timeframe, it seems that preliminary planetary application is not entirely impossible. Bitcoin (or similar credit points) can serve as the underlying token of human digital civilization.

So the overall scientific properties of BTC:

· Supply Cap (Scarcity) + Consensus Strength (Decentralization);

· Real-world context: Continuing weakening of fiat credit, expansion of debt bubbles;

· In future uncertainty, Bitcoin's "anchoring property" becomes more prominent.

IV. Summary of BTC's Key Long-Term Trend Value

This article concludes the following based on the analysis of BTC's halving cycle performance and its long-term scientific properties:

Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle shows a highly consistent market rhythm: expected upward movement before the halving, short-term consolidation and accumulation after the halving, followed by the main uptrend. From the perspective of inflation rate, after the 2024 halving, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate will drop to 0.78%, the first time lower than gold, further consolidating its position as a scarce asset. Against the backdrop of sustained high inflation in the global fiat currency system, expanding credit, and increasingly massive debt deficits, Bitcoin's deflationary model and decentralized characteristics are attracting more and more attention and allocation from traditional capital.

Although short-term market fluctuations still exist and the sudden appearance of black swans cannot be ignored, the logic of Bitcoin's long-term value is gradually becoming clear: it is not only a cryptocurrency but also a new type of asset based on cryptography and consensus. In the future cycle, its long-term value potential, ability to hedge inflation, irreplacability of the technological foundation, and further expansion of ecosystem development will continue to empower it, constructing the core value barriers that "digital gold" should possess.

Point of View Reminder: Some people classify it as such because of speculation or concept scams in the market, which is also a kind of subjective research attitude (or it can be said that projects relying solely on hype are difficult to sustain, such as many memes).

Risk Warning: The discussion in this article on the halving cycle and long-term value is only for popular science and learning reference research purposes and is not investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research, form their own judgment logic, and not blindly follow or believe in anyone. DYOR.

Original Article Link