90 Days Later, Bitcoin Returns to $100,000: Is the Bull Market Here?

Since Bitcoin briefly surged above $10,200 on February 4th, Bitcoin has experienced a three-month tug-of-war, with the price failing to effectively hold above the $10,000 mark. Just now, the market finally witnessed a key breakthrough as Bitcoin surpassed $10,100 with a 4% increase in the last 24 hours.

In the first half of 2025, the crypto market has experienced various ups and downs. Bitcoin's market dominance has continuously climbed to a historic high. The Trump administration, on the one hand, has hinted at favorable regulations while disrupting tariff orders and being accused of market manipulation.

At the beginning of the year, strong U.S. employment data and persistent inflation pressure led to market expectations of a delayed Fed rate cut. The higher interest rates reduced investors' interest in high-risk assets, causing a capital outflow. In February, Bybit fell victim to a hack resulting in the loss of $1.5 billion in assets, making it one of the largest cryptocurrency theft events in history. This raised concerns about cryptocurrency security in the market, further suppressing Bitcoin's price.

In early April, Trump announced new tariffs on nearly all imported goods, sparking global market panic. The stock market plunged, investors' risk appetite decreased, and this turmoil affected the cryptocurrency market. As a risk asset, Bitcoin was not spared and experienced a significant price drop.

However, recent developments such as tariff negotiations, ETF fund inflows, continued holdings by listed companies, and various states promoting strategic reserve bills have collectively driven Bitcoin into a new round of structural uptrend. The market is witnessing a trend shift from retail to institutional investors and from risk speculation to asset allocation.

Listed Companies and Bitcoin Reserve Plans in U.S. States

Bitcoin is seeing sustained buying from "big buyers."

MicroStrategy has been a steadfast buyer of Bitcoin. On May 2nd, it announced its bold "42/42 Plan," aiming to raise $8.4 billion over two years to purchase Bitcoin. Previously, it implemented the $4.2 billion "21/21 Plan."

In addition, the Japanese publicly traded company Metaplanet recently announced another $53.4 million investment to acquire an additional 555 BTC. It also issued a $25 million worth of common bonds to make additional Bitcoin purchases.

Furthermore, Harsh Bharwani, CEO of the Indian listed company Jetking, stated that they are raising billions of dollars to purchase 18,000 BTC.

The CEO of Jetking said: "Over the next six months, we plan to raise funds and scale up to approximately 180 BTC. Over the next year, we plan to reach a scale of about 1,800 BTC. Eventually, by around 2030, using all the tools and resources available to us, we intend to reach a scale of about 18,000 BTC."

In addition to the buy-and-hold strategy of listed companies, there is also the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Law being progressively implemented by various U.S. states. At the federal level, Trump signed an executive order in March requiring the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital asset inventory.

On May 7, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett revealed that New Hampshire became the first state in the U.S. to pass a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Law, authorizing state officials to directly or through exchange-traded products (ETPs) purchase the world's largest digital asset.

Early yesterday morning, the Texas Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Law (SB 21) passed the DOGE Committee review without amendments and will now proceed to the final full vote stage. Since the Texas legislature will adjourn on June 2, the final outcome of this bill is expected to be revealed within the next three weeks. This bill is a significant legislative move for Texas to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, having completed all committee review procedures and now only one step away from final approval.

Related reading: "After Understanding King's Signature, Which States in the U.S. Are Actively Promoting Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Laws?"

Rate Cut Expectations, Improved Trade Environment

Early on May 8, the Federal Reserve, despite pressure from Trump, announced in the early hours that it would maintain the benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5%. This marks the third consecutive meeting without a rate cut. Despite the U.S. economic contraction in the first quarter and the inflation pressure caused by the Trump administration's imposition of import tariffs, the Federal Reserve emphasized an economy of "robust growth" and a job market that is "strong." It stressed that the current level of inflation is "slightly high but manageable" and has not yet signaled a rate cut.

However, Powell stated that "despite increasing uncertainty, the overall economy remains robust." He mentioned that the unemployment rate is still low, and the labor market is "at or near full employment." The market expects that by the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve will reduce the federal funds rate to 3.6%.

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the recent Token2049 conference that investors should be grateful to the U.S. monetary authorities. He believes that inflation may continue, which is generally seen as bullish for assets like Bitcoin. In an interview, he also pointed out, "I think the current market environment is very conducive to the rise of risk assets, much like what we saw from the third quarter of 2022 through the beginning of 2025."

The analysis shows that the current market is in a complex game: on one hand, a high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress investors' interest in high-risk assets such as crypto assets; on the other hand, geopolitical risks combined with inflation expectations are driving some funds to hedge Bitcoin as "digital gold."

Of particular note is that the Fed's policy statement has, for the first time, mentioned that it will "consider broad economic data rather than a single indicator," which the market interprets as a potential shift to dovishness when signs of economic slowdown become evident. Currently, CME interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 68%, up 12 percentage points from before the decision. The correlation between the crypto market and traditional financial markets continues to strengthen, and macro policy changes are becoming a key variable influencing digital asset prices.

In addition to the Fed's rate cut expectations, the market has also seen a positive development in the form of progress in the tariff negotiations. On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on the terms of a tariff trade deal, with the UK government agreeing to make concessions on importing US food and agricultural products in exchange for the US lowering tariffs on UK car exports.

According to CNBC, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated in an interview on Monday local time that she expects progress in US-China trade negotiations in the coming weeks and pointed out that Trump's 145% tariffs on China are not sustainable in the long run. This indicates that the future Trump administration has some room for easing in its tariff policy, which is conducive to the stable development of the crypto market.

Bitcoin ETF Sees Continued Net Inflows

At the end of April, the analysis firm Matrixport stated that based on the daily chart since March 19, Bitcoin ETF funds have been continuously flowing out, and open interest in the futures market has also declined. From January to April, ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of nearly $5 billion.

However, a recent observation shows close to $3 billion in large-scale inflows, alongside an increase in open interest in futures, while funding rates remain at relatively low levels. This indicates that the current new fund inflows are mainly driven by genuine long-term holding demand, and compared to the arbitrage-driven ETF buying at the beginning of the year, the overall bullish signal is more positive.

On May 4, according to Farside data, total net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs once again surpassed $40 billion, reaching $402.07 billion, approaching a historical high. The peak of total net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs was reached on February 7 at $407.8 billion.

Meanwhile, data shows that while Bitcoin continues to consolidate below $100,000, small-scale retail investors have started selling BTC. Cryptocurrency analyst Santiment recently analyzed the behavior difference between Bitcoin whales and retail investors, often indicating that Bitcoin may be moving towards the next uptrend.

The data shows that wallet addresses highly correlated with the overall health of the cryptocurrency market (holding 10 to 10,000 BTC) have collectively increased their Bitcoin holdings by 81,338 BTC during the past 6 weeks, representing 0.61% of their total holdings.

Meanwhile, wallet addresses typically showing a lagging inverse relationship with price trends (holding less than 0.1 BTC) have sold 290 BTC in the past 6 weeks, reducing their holdings by approximately 0.60%.