Unraveling Bitcoin’s Ongoing Rally: $3B Jump in Realized Cap Explained

Key Points

• Bitcoin’s Realized Cap surged by over $3.004 billion in 24 hours, indicating strong market-wide accumulation.
• Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Ratio has increased 16.67% within the same period, reflecting a deepening scarcity trend.

Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has seen a significant increase of over $3.004 billion within just a day, a clear sign of strong accumulation across the market.

This 0.33% increase in allocated capital aligns with a post-halving pattern we’ve seen before: impulsive price action followed by tight consolidation.

Long-term Investor Conviction

The increase in Realized Cap demonstrates long-term investor conviction as buyers continue to accumulate at higher price levels.

This suggests the beginning of another bullish leg as the aggregate cost basis rises along with capital inflows.

In addition to this, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Ratio has jumped 16.67% within the same 24-hour window.

This metric indicates a growing scarcity trend, with the current supply becoming increasingly constrained relative to newly mined coins.

Historically, such spikes in S2F often coincide with aggressive long-term investor accumulation and precede strong bullish price trends.

Therefore, this increase in scarcity underscores the market’s expectation for higher valuations in the future.

Exchange Netflows

Exchange Netflows, however, tell a more tempered story.

Despite Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, netflows across aggregated exchanges show a modest 24-hour inflow of +579 BTC.

Over the past week, Net Inflows stood at +697 BTC, while the 30-day change still shows minor outflows at -114 BTC.

This pattern suggests a balance between profit-taking and strategic accumulation. However, the limited inflow amidst rising prices highlights investor hesitation to offload large holdings.

In this context, the market appears to be consolidating without clear sell pressure, implying confidence in further upside.

The NVT Golden Cross is on an upswing, but still sits comfortably below the 2.2 danger zone.

This indicates that while Bitcoin’s valuation is increasing faster than on-chain transaction volume, the divergence remains within healthy bounds.

A rising NVT without breaching critical thresholds means price appreciation still looks sustainable. If volume catches up, this divergence could support a stronger continuation rally.

However, the lack of overbought conditions provides room for further upside without triggering immediate correction signals.

Bitcoin has officially broken above the $108K supply zone, flipping previous resistance into potential support. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $110,412. This move marks a clear technical breakout as the price pushed past a historically strong ceiling.

Additionally, the MACD indicator has turned bullish, with a crossover confirming momentum strength. Parabolic SAR dots continue to trail beneath price candles, supporting the uptrend.

Therefore, the breakout could pave the way for a continued push toward $115K if buying pressure holds at current levels.

The surge in realized cap, rising S2F ratio, and breakout above $108K supply confirm bullish strength. While exchange flows remain modest and the NVT ratio is climbing, no signs of market overheating are present.

Therefore, Bitcoin looks primed for continuation toward the $115K zone, supported by strong momentum and accumulating investor interest.