Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesEarnWeb3SquareMore
Trade
Spot
Buy and sell crypto with ease
Margin
Amplify your capital and maximize fund efficiency
Onchain
Going Onchain, without going Onchain!
Convert
Zero fees, no slippage
Explore
Launchhub
Gain the edge early and start winning
Copy
Copy elite trader with one click
Bots
Simple, fast, and reliable AI trading bot
Trade
USDT-M Futures
Futures settled in USDT
USDC-M Futures
Futures settled in USDC
Coin-M Futures
Futures settled in cryptocurrencies
Explore
Futures guide
A beginner-to-advanced journey in futures trading
Futures promotions
Generous rewards await
Overview
A variety of products to grow your assets
Simple Earn
Deposit and withdraw anytime to earn flexible returns with zero risk
On-chain Earn
Earn profits daily without risking principal
Structured Earn
Robust financial innovation to navigate market swings
VIP and Wealth Management
Premium services for smart wealth management
Loans
Flexible borrowing with high fund security
Navigating Bitcoin’s Volatile Rebound: Is This a Bear Trap or a Buying Opportunity?

Navigating Bitcoin’s Volatile Rebound: Is This a Bear Trap or a Buying Opportunity?

ainvest2025/08/29 05:09
By:BlockByte

- Bitcoin rebounded to $113,600 in August 2025, sparking debate over sustainability amid conflicting technical signals and macroeconomic risks. - Key levels like $117,570 and $116,000 (options expiry max pain) remain critical, with bearish momentum indicators clashing against bullish on-chain metrics. - Altcoins like Solana and Cronos surged amid risk-on sentiment, but Bitcoin's failure to break above $115,000 risks triggering cascading altcoin sell-offs. - Fed policy uncertainty and $13.8B options expiry

Bitcoin’s recent rebound from $110,000 to $113,600 in late August 2025 has sparked debate: Is this a sustainable breakout or a bear trap? The answer hinges on aligning technical signals, macroeconomic dynamics, and risk management strategies. With the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and the looming $13.8 billion Bitcoin options expiry on August 29 as critical variables, investors must adopt a data-driven approach to navigate this volatile juncture.

Technical Divergence and Peter Brandt’s Warning

Bitcoin’s price action near $113,000 reflects conflicting signals. While the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) show bullish divergence—suggesting potential for a trend reversal—bearish momentum is evident in the MACD histogram and RSI readings, which indicate short-term exhaustion [3]. Peter Brandt, a prominent technical analyst, has emphasized the criticality of reclaiming the $117,570 level. Failure to do so could trigger a double-top formation, historically a precursor to bearish breakdowns [2]. This technical fragility underscores the need for caution, even as on-chain metrics like the MVRV Z-Score suggest undervaluation, a pattern that has historically preceded bullish cycles [3].

Altcoin Rotation and Risk-On Sentiment

While Bitcoin struggles to break above $115,000, altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Cronos (CRO) have surged, with CRO rising 58% in 24 hours amid a high-profile partnership with Trump Media Group [4]. This altcoin outperformance reflects a broader risk-on sentiment, driven by institutional adoption and macroeconomic optimism. Ethereum (ETH) and Solana, in particular, have benefited from validator queue adjustments and ecosystem upgrades, suggesting a potential shift in market leadership [4]. However, this rotation also amplifies liquidity risks: If Bitcoin fails to hold key levels, altcoins could face cascading sell-offs as capital retreats to safer assets.

Options Expiry and Derivatives Pressure

The August 29 options expiry looms as a pivotal event. Deribit’s "max pain" analysis points to $116,000 as the level where the most contracts expire worthless, creating a focal point for bearish positioning [5]. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has declined across major exchanges, signaling reduced conviction in the current rally [1]. With 21% of put contracts concentrated above $115,000, the market is primed for sharp volatility if Bitcoin fails to break above $114,000 or $116,000 [5]. Traders must hedge against this risk, particularly as leveraged positions could exacerbate price swings.

Fed Policy and Macro Alignment

The Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot remains a double-edged sword. Governor Michelle Bowman’s advocacy for three 2025 rate cuts has buoyed Bitcoin, aligning with historical trends where lower rates drive liquidity into risk assets [2]. However, mixed signals from the Jackson Hole symposium—where Jerome Powell hinted at potential cuts without clarity—triggered $941 million in crypto liquidations as Bitcoin fell below $110,000 [5]. The upcoming 10-year Treasury yield, currently at 3.8% (its lowest since 2021), and the U.S. Dollar Index will be critical indicators of macro alignment [6]. A dovish Fed could extend the bull run, but a hawkish pivot or delayed cuts could trigger a parabolic selloff.

Strategic Risk Management: A Data-Driven Approach

Given these dynamics, investors should adopt a measured strategy:
1. Position Sizing: Allocate 50–70% to Bitcoin and Ethereum, with smaller satellite positions in undervalued altcoins like Chainlink (LINK) or Polkadot (DOT) [2].
2. Hedging: Use Bitcoin put options to protect against expiry-driven volatility, particularly around the $116,000 max pain level [5].
3. Macro Monitoring: Track the 10-year Treasury yield and Fed speeches for liquidity signals, while avoiding overexposure to overvalued altcoins like XRP or BNB [6].

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s rebound is a high-stakes game of technical precision and macroeconomic alignment. While on-chain metrics and institutional adoption suggest resilience, the interplay of options expiry, Fed policy, and altcoin rotation demands disciplined risk management. Investors who balance core holdings with tactical hedging and macro awareness may find this volatile window a strategic entry point—or a cautionary trap.

Source:
[1] Crypto Markets Today: BTC's Gain Lack Derivative Traders' Support, YZY Leads to Losses
[2] Bitcoin Rises As Fed Governor Backs Three Rate Cuts In 2025
[3] Bitcoin Targets $118K as MVRV Signals Bullish Shift in ...
[4] Altseason 2025: Fed Policy Shifts and Altcoin Rotation Dynamics
[5] Bitcoin Bull Market Hinges On $13.8 Billion Options Expiry
[6] Fed Policy Shifts and Crypto Market Volatility

0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Earn new token airdrops
Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR
Lock now!

You may also like

MINA -89.45% Amid Market Downturn and Volatility

- MINA's price plummeted 477.45% in 24 hours to $0.1818, marking a historic decline. - Analysts attribute the drop to macroeconomic pressures, shifting sentiment, and technical breakdowns. - The sell-off triggered stop-loss orders and liquidations, worsening the bearish trend.

ainvest2025/08/29 12:04
MINA -89.45% Amid Market Downturn and Volatility

Bitcoin News Today: Amdax Pioneers 1% Bitcoin Treasury Model in Regulated European Market

- Amsterdam-based Amdax secured €20M in initial funding for AMBTS, a regulated Bitcoin treasury strategy targeting 1% of total BTC supply (210,000 coins). - AMBTS aims to list on Euronext Amsterdam, leveraging Amdax's MiCAR-compliant infrastructure to offer institutional investors structured crypto exposure. - The initiative highlights growing European institutional demand for regulated Bitcoin products amid evolving MiCAR frameworks and corporate treasury trends. - Unlike peers like Sequans, AMBTS priorit

ainvest2025/08/29 12:03
Bitcoin News Today: Amdax Pioneers 1% Bitcoin Treasury Model in Regulated European Market

Hong Kong's Stablecoin Push Drives CNPC's Digital Payments Gamble

- CNPC explores stablecoin use for cross-border payments to cut costs and boost yuan adoption, tracking Hong Kong's regulatory shifts. - Hong Kong's 2025 Stablecoins Ordinance mandates licensing, reserves, and cybersecurity for Specified Stablecoins under HKMA oversight. - Stricter SFC rules prompted BitMart to withdraw VASP license application, raising compliance costs for crypto firms in Hong Kong. - Chinese tech firms apply for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, signaling confidence in digital assets for

ainvest2025/08/29 12:03
Hong Kong's Stablecoin Push Drives CNPC's Digital Payments Gamble

Ethereum's $10,000 Potential vs. the High-Yield DeFi Disruption of Mutuum Finance (MUTM): Navigating 2025's Macro and Micro Opportunities

- 2025 crypto market features Ethereum's institutional growth and Mutuum Finance (MUTM)'s DeFi disruption, offering diversified portfolio opportunities. - Ethereum gains from SEC utility token reclassification, $9.4B ETF inflows, and 0.5% annual supply reduction, with analysts projecting $6,400–$12,000+ prices. - MUTM's $0.035 presale (14.29% phase jump) and hybrid P2C/P2P lending model offer 400%+ ROI potential, outpacing meme coins with CertiK-verified security. - Strategic allocation suggests 70% ETH fo

ainvest2025/08/29 12:00
Ethereum's $10,000 Potential vs. the High-Yield DeFi Disruption of Mutuum Finance (MUTM): Navigating 2025's Macro and Micro Opportunities