Recently, actual spot buying of BTC has been limited, and a divergence has emerged between ETF net inflows and the increase in spot exposure.
According to ChainCatcher, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that ETF net inflows are usually seen as a signal of continuous institutional accumulation of BTC. Historically, there has been a high correlation between BTC price increases and significant ETF net inflows. On September 10 and 11, the combined net inflow exceeded 9,700 BTC. Similar situations also occurred in April and June this year, when market rallies were likewise accompanied by a sudden increase in ETF net inflows.
However, there are differences in the structure of recent inflows compared to previous ones. During the rally phases in April and June, the increase in ETF holdings was much greater than the change in CME futures positions, indicating that capital mainly entered directly through spot ETFs, bringing substantial buying demand. On September 10 and 11, although ETF net inflows increased significantly, the corresponding spot exposure was relatively small, providing limited real spot buying momentum for BTC. If there are higher expectations for the market going forward, it is necessary not only to see an increase in ETF net inflows, but also to see sufficiently large spot exposure purchases to truly support the continuation of the rally. This analysis is for learning and communication purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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