A French Investor Transforms an $85M Forecast into a Story of Conviction and Investment

Polymarket, a decentralized platform for prediction markets, is transforming the field of event-based forecasting and speculative trading, capturing the interest of both major investors and individual participants. By the middle of 2025, Polymarket had recorded impressive trading volumes, especially surrounding major events like national elections and economic projections. In the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential race, activity soared on the site, with one market about the election outcome accumulating $36.8 billion in total bets. This frenzy led to a remarkable success story, as a French trader utilized a distinctive research strategy to accurately forecast Donald Trump’s win, resulting in an $85 million gain.

The success of the platform is largely credited to its creative integration of blockchain and stablecoins, most notably

, which helps stabilize prices and shields users from the unpredictability of other digital currencies. By adopting this approach, Polymarket has broadened its appeal even to those unfamiliar with crypto. Collaborations with payment facilitators like MoonPay have also made it much easier for newcomers to join, letting users deposit funds using regular banking options.

Polymarket’s rapid expansion has not been without regulatory obstacles. In 2022, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined the company $1.4 million and forced it to halt operations in the United States for offering unregistered binary options. Since then, Polymarket has worked to address these legal issues, including acquiring QCX—a derivatives exchange under CFTC oversight—in a $112 million transaction in early 2025. This acquisition reflects the platform’s ambitions to return to the U.S. with a more compliant setup.

Polymarket’s influence reaches well beyond political events, extending into economic prediction. For example, in May 2025, the perceived chance of a U.S. recession that year fell to 39% on Polymarket, a drop from previous forecasts. This more positive outlook was partly due to improved relations in the U.S.-China trade conflict. Meanwhile, the likelihood of

hitting a new record high in 2024 also decreased to 14%, with most participants wagering against such a milestone.

In addition to trading, Polymarket has earned recognition as a resource for analysts and media organizations. In 2024, Bloomberg began incorporating Polymarket’s political prediction data into its financial terminals, reflecting growing acknowledgment of the platform’s analytical contributions. This partnership highlights Polymarket’s potential to impact mainstream finance by offering timely insights into crowd sentiment and predictive trends.

Yet, the growing influence of Polymarket and similar services has sparked debates about their social impact. Detractors point out ethical dilemmas posed by turning real-world crises—like wars, disasters, and political turmoil—into betting opportunities. For instance, Polymarket has been criticized for allowing bets on tragic incidents such as the UNH homicide and the LA wildfires. These discussions underline the importance of balancing innovation with ethical considerations in the prediction market industry.

Researchers have also pointed to inefficiencies in prediction markets, such as arbitrage possibilities caused by mispricing. An analysis of Polymarket’s data from April 2024 to April 2025 identified more than 7,000 markets with pricing errors, enabling arbitrageurs to make over $40 million in risk-free profits. This evidence highlights the intricate market mechanisms at play and shows how skilled traders can benefit from such discrepancies.

As Polymarket continues to develop, it must navigate the dual task of sustaining innovation while meeting legal and ethical expectations. Its future success will depend on how effectively it can respond to regulatory demands and maintain credibility. Supported by major backers and an expanding community, Polymarket is poised to help shape the next era of information-driven finance, where belief, insight, and investment come together to influence real-world outcomes.