Sugarcane crushing surged in South-Central Brazil in late May, with the sugar-ethanol ratio steady at 44%.

(1) Data released by the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica shows that the estimated sugarcane crushing volume in the Central-South region in late May is 41.55 million tons, with sugar production expected to reach 2.201 million tons. Ethanol output for the same period is projected to be 2.129 billion liters. (2) Sugar mills used 44.17% of the sugarcane feedstock for sugar production, a ratio largely in line with the market's expected sugar-making preference range, reflecting that current international sugar prices still offer a relative income advantage over ethanol. Producers tend to maintain a high sugar-conversion strategy. (3) In late May, uneven rainfall distribution in Brazil caused temporary disruptions to local harvesting progress, but overall crushing volume remains at historically high levels. Short-term supply increases are weighing on international raw sugar prices. (4) Against the backdrop of ongoing Trump tariff remarks driving a reshuffle in commodity trade flows, fluctuations in the Brazilian real exchange rate and port logistics efficiency will be key variables affecting export pace. Further attention should be paid to whether crushing data in the first half of June can remain at high levels.