Bitcoin trades near $65,000 as Trump signals possible Strait of Hormuz deal

Macro sentiment supports Bitcoin

Recent strength in Bitcoin appears to be driven more by macroeconomic sentiment than by a surge in crypto-specific demand. President Donald Trump cited robust employment numbers, improved manufacturing statistics, and easing inflation pressures as contributors to the brighter outlook. Trump also raised hopes of a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for global oil supplies.

If access to the Strait resumes, oil prices could experience downward pressure, which may further alleviate inflation concerns. In turn, lower inflation expectations might create breathing room for Treasury yields and the US dollar to decline. This dynamic generally favors risk assets such as Bitcoin, which could benefit from broader appetite for investment in nontraditional markets.

Recent optimism in markets reflects hopes that lower oil prices and easing inflation could trigger a rally in risk assets, with Bitcoin closely tracking these macroeconomic trends.

However, analysts note several conditions must be met for this scenario to play out. Lower oil prices must meaningfully translate into reduced inflation expectations, and those expectations need to translate into declining real yields and a weaker dollar. Without this sequence, gains for Bitcoin could remain limited.

Correlation with equities and market outlook

Bitcoin currently shows a correlation of approximately 63% with the S&P 500, suggesting that broader equity sentiment may influence crypto price action more than internal factors. A more stable Middle East could encourage risk-taking, supporting both stocks and cryptocurrencies, but may also reduce safe-haven demand that lifted Bitcoin earlier in the year.

Traders are keeping a close watch on real yields and the US dollar for signals. Should both metrics fall in tandem with oil prices, Bitcoin may have an opportunity to break decisively above its current range. If yields remain elevated, the case for a sustained rally could weaken, leaving Bitcoin near the $65,000 mark in the short term.

Many investors now see the interplay of global macroeconomic developments and geopolitical news as critical drivers for digital asset prices, especially when movements within the crypto sector itself remain subdued.

The Strait of Hormuz, at the center of geopolitical tensions, handles a significant portion of the world’s oil shipments. Its reopening would not only affect energy markets, but could also shape inflation and the appetite for risk across various investment sectors.

Market participants continue to weigh incoming data, looking for confirmation that economic conditions and geopolitical resolutions can work together to support a new phase of crypto price expansion.

Mini dictionary: Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, is crucial for the global oil supply, with a large share of the world’s petroleum exports passing through it daily. Disruption or reopening of the strait has significant implications for energy prices and financial markets.