Bitcoin steadies above $65,000 as Iran-Oman deal talk eases Hormuz concerns, lifts risk assets

The crypto market opened the week on a positive note, with bitcoin $BTC$64,978.83 up 0.54% since midnight UTC at $65,209 and ether $ETH$1,916.58 gaining 0.86% to $1,925 as sentiment stabilized following a turbulent July.

The move was correlated with Nasdaq 100 index futures, which rose by 0.45% since midnight, buoyed by speculation from the Middle East that Iran is ready to strike a deal with Oman to open the Strait of Hormuz.

The altcoin market is delicately poised, waiting to see if bitcoin can drive higher into the $68,000 to $72,000 range before benefiting from capital rotation.

Derivatives positioning

• Long-short ratio flips bullish: The long-short ratio for taker volume in crypto futures has flipped bullish, with longs accounting for 52% of the flow. A taker is an entity that removes liquidity from the order book by trading at available prices.
• $BTC OI growth remains elusive: Bitcoin futures market activity remains subdued as $BTC attempts to hold above $65,000 amid cooling bets on Federal Reserve rate increases. Open interest (OI) slipped back below 750K $BTC. However, annualized funding rates and 24-hour OI-adjusted CVD remain positive, indicating that the limited interest present in the market is leaning bullish.
• $ETH OI slides: De-risking continues in $ETH futures, with open interest falling to 13.35 million tokens, the lowest level since May 3, and a significant drop from the late-May peak of 15.98 million tokens.
• Activity picks up in $SOL futures: Renewed activity is appearing in $SOL futures, as open interest rebounds to 64.60 million tokens from a recent low of around 60 million. This points to fresh capital inflows, coinciding with the token’s price recovery from nearly $70 to over $76 and a break above the widely tracked Ichimoku cloud, signaling a potential short-term bullish trend reversal.
• Monero leads OI growth: Privacy-focused coin Monero (XMR) has surged 5% over the past 24 hours, briefly topping $400 for the first time since June 12. The rally appears to have staying power, with futures open interest jumping 6% alongside the price gains. The 24-hour CVD is the most positive among major cryptocurrencies, indicating that buyers are acting more aggressively through market orders rather than passive limit orders. In addition, annualized funding rates stand at the highest level among majors at 28%, underscoring growing demand for upside exposure.
• BVIV hits 2026 lows: Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, fell to a year-to-date low of 35.59% over the weekend. The drop shows expectations for market calm, although some traders warn that put options offering protection from price losses in $BTC are still trading at a premium to calls.
• Calls dominate volume: The 24-hour volume ranking in options shows increased investor bias for bitcoin calls at strikes $68,000 and $70,000. Ether options show a similar profile.

Token talk

• Pump.fun PUMP$0.002740 led the altcoin market with a 5.39% gain since midnight UTC, extending a 24-hour run that has pushed its market cap above $1.1 billion.
• Ethena (ENA) rose 4.84% to $0.0907, continuing a steady recovery that has seen it gain ground in most sessions over the past two weeks. Still, it remains more than 90% below its all-time high.
• NEAR protocol gained 3.79% as AI tokens broadly recovered, with FET adding 2.10% after weeks of underperformance against the wider market.
• Lighter (LIT) slipped 0.94%, one of the only notable altcoins in the red as its slide following July's 200%-plus rally continues to grind lower.
• Woldcoin WLD$0.3398 posted a 13% gain over the past 24 hours but remains in a deep downtrend, down 91% from its record high one year ago.
• CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator is at 37/100, down significantly from last week’s peak of 51/100 as investors focus on bitcoin’s potential move higher.