S&P Global US PMIs expected to ease slightly in August, still showing solid growth

S&P Global will release the preliminary figures of August’s United States Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), a report collecting top private sector executives' opinions about business conditions, to provide an early indication of momentum in the world’s largest economy.

The report includes three measures: the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI, and the Composite PMI (a weighted combination of the two), and covers a wide range of aspects, from production or export activity to capacity utilisation, employment, and inventory levels.

PMI numbers indicate sector expansion when above 50 and contraction otherwise.

July’s figures highlighted a sharp improvement in business activity, as the S&P Global Composite PMI jumped to 54.5 from June’s 51.9, beating market expectations and recording its best performance since October 2025. Nevertheless, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, warned that manufacturing activity slowed down, weighed down by supplier delays due to the Middle East conflict.

What can we expect from the August S&P Global PMI report?

For August, the market consensus anticipates a mild slowdown in economic activity, with the Manufacturing PMI ticking down to 53.8 from July’s 53.9 reading and the Services PMI easing to 54.0 from last month’s 54.6.

Barring a significant miss, August figures will still highlight healthy growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors, especially if compared with most developed economies. In general terms, PMI data from July and August is likely to remain consistent with steady GDP growth and endorse the view of US economic exceptionalism amid a struggling global economy. 

July’s report warned that some of the improvements seen in the last month would prove short-lived, as the gain in hospitality spend was mostly due to special, one-off events such as the World Cup while upside price pressures threaten to weaken demand and constrain growth.

In that sense, a sharper-than-expected slowdown is likely to increase investors’ concerns about the economic outlook, triggered by the disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report seen earlier in the month. This would add bearish pressure to an already weak US Dollar, which has been hammered this week by the US Treasury’s plan to increase its purchases of long-term Government debt to stem the bond crisis.   

A positive surprise, on the contrary, is likely to improve confidence in the US economy, although the impact on the US Dollar will likely remain limited, unless there is a sharp deviation from market expectations.

When will the August flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD?

The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs report will be released at 13:45 GMT and is expected to show a moderate slowdown in US business activity. 

Earlier on the day, the Eurozone’s HCOB Flash PMIs beat expectations, as manufacturing activity expanded at a faster pace than anticipated and Services PMI kept growing at a steady pace, although at levels consistent with slow growth. The data had a moderately positive impact on the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Guillermo Alcalá, FX analyst at FXStreet, observes the EUR/USD technical picture showing a solid bullish momentum after breaching the top of the last two months' trading range, and the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), at 1.1630, a very popular indicator for FX traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, highlights heavily overbought levels in most timeframes, which should act as a warning for buyers. 

A confirmation above the late May highs at 1.1685 would clear the path towards the 1.1800 resistance area, which capped bulls several times in early May. Failure to breach 1.1685, on the other hand, would bring the mentioned 200-day SMA back into focus.