Bitcoin’s Rally Faces a Crucial Week: These 3 Macro Events Could Decide the Next Move

After one bitcoin’s most volatile and impressive weeks, the cryptocurrency market has turned its attention to important US macro news to be announced in the next five days.

The analysts at the Kobeissi Letter highlighted several such events scheduled next, but three stand out for the crypto industry: the July PCE inflation report, revised second-quarter GDP data, and the Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s highly anticipated appearance at Jackson Hole for the first time.

All Eyes on Wednesday

Monday is expected to be a quiet day, with nothing major scheduled. The data coming on Tuesday will probably not impact crypto, as it’s the August CB consumer confidence data and the July new home sales data. However, it all changes on Wednesday, which will be the busiest day of the week.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and core PCE at 8:30 ET, which remains particularly important as it continues to be the Fed’s preferred measure for assessing underlying inflationary pressures.

Economists cited by Kiplinger expect core PCE to rise slightly month over month and 3.2% annually. Such a reading would leave underlying inflation higher than the Fed’s 2% objective, despite relatively encouraging CPI and PPI figures from earlier this month.

As usual, hotter-than-expected readings could strengthen expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated or even rise again, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher. In contrast, softer reading would likely have the opposite effect by reducing pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy further.

The other big event on Wednesday will be the release of the second estimate of US GDP for Q2. The advance reading showed annualized growth of just 1.5%, down significantly from 2.1% during Q1.

Warsh Goes to Jackson Hole

The other major development will take place on Friday when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote address after his appointment at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. This speech will come at a particularly sensitive moment since the central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during its July meeting, but three policymakers voted for a hike.

Longer-term treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year recently around 4.73% and the 30-year above 5.2%. Investors will continue to look for clues about how Warsh and the Fed view persistent inflation and whether another rate hike remains on the table.

His stance, especially if it’s clear, will likely impact BTC, which rose from $64,000 to almost $80,000 at the end of last week, but it has stalled at around $77,000 since then.