Key Developments in Anthropic IPO: Plans to Allow Existing Shareholders to "Cash Out," Potential Lockup Extension, Expected Listing as Early as Late September

Anthropic's IPO process has seen another key development.

According to a report by tech media The Information on Wednesday, June 27 (ET), Anthropic is considering allowing existing shareholders to sell some of their shares in its IPO while also exploring the possibility of imposing a lock-up period exceeding 180 days. This aims to meet some of the cash-out needs of early investors and employees, while at the same time controlling post-listing share supply and price volatility.

The report states that Anthropic plans to publicly disclose its IPO prospectus after US Labor Day, i.e., after September 7, with an investor day scheduled for mid-September to introduce the company to potential investors and research analysts. The targeted IPO window is currently set for late September or early October, though the final timeline may still be subject to change.

Market expectations for a near-term Anthropic listing are also heating up. Polymarket’s official social media account posted during Thursday's US trading hours that the market currently puts the probability of Anthropic completing its IPO before October at 86%.

Existing Shareholders May Be Allowed To Sell Shares In The IPO

The Information reports that Anthropic is considering allowing some existing shareholders to directly sell shares during its IPO, meaning the IPO may include both newly issued shares by the company and shares sold by existing shareholders.

It is not yet clear what the final amount of shares available for sale will be, nor which shareholders will be able to participate.

If this plan is implemented, Anthropic will differ from the approach taken by some large technology IPOs this year. The Information previously noted that neither SpaceX nor Cerebras allowed existing shareholders to sell during their IPOs, whereas companies like CoreWeave and Figma included arrangements for the sale of old shares when going public in recent years.

For Anthropic, allowing some early shareholders to cash out during the IPO stage could help unlock large unrealized gains accrued by early investors and employees. The company’s valuation has risen rapidly over the past two years, reaching about $96.5 billion in its latest funding round in May this year.

However, insiders selling shares during the IPO could also send a negative signal to the market, as investors might interpret it as early shareholders seeking to realize gains upon the company’s listing. As a result, Anthropic is also considering stricter lock-up arrangements to reduce post-listing selling pressure.

Lock-Up Period May Exceed 180 Days

The Information says that Anthropic is considering imposing a lock-up period that exceeds 180 days for at least some shareholders.

The traditional lock-up period for IPOs is typically 180 days, mainly designed to prevent insiders and early investors from flooding the market with shares immediately after the company goes public, which could impact the stock price.

If Anthropic allows some shareholders to sell shares at the IPO stage while imposing a longer lock-up period on the remainder, the company can stagger share supply across different timeframes, thus mitigating the risk of concentrated selling both immediately after listing and when lock-ups expire.

This is especially important for Anthropic. As one of the world’s highest-valued AI startups, the scale and market attention of its IPO could far exceed that of a typical tech company. If a large number of early investors cash out right after listing, it could trigger significant price volatility.

The Information has also previously reported that Anthropic is considering requiring employees to sell stock through pre-arranged trading plans rather than relying solely on the post-earnings trading window. This arrangement would similarly help the company manage insider trading activity in a more orderly fashion after listing.

Prospectus May Be Released After US Labor Day

Regarding the IPO timeline, The Information says Anthropic plans to publicly disclose its prospectus after US Labor Day and hold its investor day in mid-September.

According to the current plan, the IPO could be completed in late September or early October.

Shay Boloor of Futurum Equities also believes that Anthropic’s IPO filing could be published as early as September, with the IPO possibly taking place by late September. According to the data released by Polymarket's official account on Wednesday, the market currently estimates an 86% probability of Anthropic completing its IPO before October.

If Anthropic proceeds on this timeline, its prospectus will become a focal point for the market in the coming weeks. At that time, the company's specific revenue growth rates, profitability, investments in computing power, equity structure, and IPO scale will provide the market with more direct information to assess its ultimate valuation.

Market Betting on a Trillion-Dollar Valuation

The reason Anthropic’s IPO is so closely watched is its potential to be one of the largest tech IPOs in history.

Yahoo Finance previously cited widespread market expectations that Anthropic’s IPO valuation could reach around $1 trillion. The Information also previously reported that bankers involved in the IPO preparations discussed a valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion, with some insiders even believing the valuation could reach $2 trillion.

This valuation expectation is based on the market’s bet on Anthropic’s future high revenue growth.

Reuters reported on August 15 that Anthropic’s IPO valuation will partly depend on its revenue forecasts for 2028, with the company expecting annual revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028. As of May this year, Anthropic’s annualized revenue stood at approximately $47 billion.

If these forecasts are included in the prospectus, capital markets will need to judge whether Anthropic can maintain extremely high revenue growth over the next two years, and whether massive investments in computing power can ultimately deliver adequate commercial returns.

As such, with the prospectus possibly emerging after Labor Day, the highly anticipated “AI super IPO” of Anthropic is moving from discussions about private market valuations to the public capital market pricing stage.