Everbright Futures 0828 Gold Commentary: Focus on Tonight's Global Central Bank Summit, Be Cautious with Gold in the Short Term

Overnight, spot precious metals in London fluctuated with a slightly strong bias. Attention is on the speech by the new Federal Reserve Chair Walsh at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting tonight, which is the most important policy communication before the September FOMC meeting. This week, U.S. core PCE data will be released, and inflation has encountered obstacles in its decline, showing stickiness. Market expectations for a September rate hike have become more divided, with increasingly hawkish tones from within the Federal Reserve. Yesterday, three Fed officials warned that current interest rates may be too accommodative and that inflation pressures still need to be addressed. In addition, yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries are fluctuating at high levels, with disturbances in the bond market stemming from Treasury buybacks of long-term bonds. The dollar and real interest rates have been volatile; pay close attention to how interest rate pricing affects gold.

On the macro front, the U.S. goods trade deficit in July surged 17.2% month-on-month to 118.8 billion USD, marking a new high since March 2025. In terms of geopolitics, according to Wall Street Journal, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz quickly rebounded to around 75% of pre-war levels. Iran and Oman are continuing negotiations on a strait agreement, and the market continues to trade based on expectations of easing tensions. The dollar index pulled back, gold prices showed a strong trend, but the market remains focused on tonight's keynote speech by the new Federal Reserve Chair Walsh at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. If a clear signal of anti-inflation policy is released, it may trigger a repricing of expectations for a September rate hike, so caution is advised.

Written by: Li Qi

Professional Qualification: F3046227

Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0016145

Editor: Zhu Henan