AI boom becomes a "key buffer" for the global economy, offsetting the impact of Middle East tensions

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智通财经2026/08/28 03:36

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The Unexpected Resilience of the Global Economy: Despite the escalation of the US-Canada trade war, Trump’s intensification of actions against Iran, and soaring bond yields, the global economy remains unfazed—oil prices have stabilized below $90/barrel, the stock market is near its highs, developed economies have experienced a summer boom, and global trade is flourishing. The IMF President stated that the current situation is a “tug-of-war between negative supply shocks from the Middle East and positive demand shocks from AI.”
Multiple Buffer Mechanisms: (1) Countries utilizing energy reserves and diversifying procurement channels (such as shifting to the US), with China as the largest importer drastically reducing imports and playing a key role in curbing global oil demand; (2) The world using oil more efficiently (producing more GDP per barrel); (3) Governments protecting households from rising energy prices through subsidies; (4) Europe increasing defense and infrastructure spending, buffering against energy shocks.
The Core Driving Force of the AI Boom: ING estimates that AI has contributed about one-third to recent US economic growth. Construction of data centers is drawing in semiconductors, electronics, cables, metals, and machinery worldwide. Asian exports have surged—in July, Chinese exports grew 25%, Japan 22%, South Korea 63%, and even smaller economies such as Thailand also reported significant export increases. The Singaporean government has raised this year’s growth forecast to 5.5% (from a previous 4%).
Concerns and Warnings: (1) The promotion of AI and its economic impact remain uncertain, and there are risks to financial stability (such as bubbles in soaring AI-related stock prices and lending expansion); (2) The IMF President warns policymakers not to put all their eggs in the AI basket; (3) Asia relies too heavily on exports, with insufficient internal growth drivers such as consumption; (4) Growth is becoming increasingly narrow, and after a period of rapid AI-driven demand, it may be approaching a critical point where growth slows.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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According to Moody's Ratings analysts, large-scale AI investments could weaken the credit metrics of US hyperscale cloud service providers, but substantial capital buffers can alleviate related pressures. As capital expenditures grow faster than cash flow from operations, the free cash flow of US hyperscale cloud providers is expected to decline between 2026 and 2027. With companies such as Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle increasing bond issuances, leverage pressure is expected to intensify further.

智通财经•2026/08/28 07:26