The market has remained in a high-level volatility range for two consecutive weeks, with the key feature still being: **a sharp drop with a large bearish candle, followed by a gradual recovery back to high levels over time.** This rhythm of "rapid decline, slow rise, consolidating instead of further falling" happens again and again, indicating the bulls still have strong support, but the overhead resistance has yet to be truly resolved.
The daily bearish phase has not completely ended for now, but from a candlestick structure perspective, instead of a deep correction, the price continues to digest the adjustment period through sideways consolidation. As long as the 8-hour support has not been effectively lost, the large structure remains resilient for now.
Pay close attention: Once the daily adjustment phase is complete, and the timeframes under 12 hours turn strong simultaneously, there is a risk of triggering a short-term multi-timeframe bullish resonance. In that case, even if a reversal is still needed in the big picture, a quick spike may appear in the short term first.
Today is also the first trading day of September, so how the monthly candle "opens" is quite important.
If September dips first to test lower support and releases risk before rebounding, the monthly trend will more likely develop a healthy bullish structure; if there’s an immediate surge at the start of the month that pressures resistance, watch out for profit-taking at highs, leading to a pullback or even a monthly upper wick.
Market volatility further compressed yesterday, and today we have already entered a new direction-selection window.
On the macro level, September’s Federal Reserve policy expectations remain a major variable weighing on the market, and the upcoming CPI and FOMC meetings will continue to influence risk asset pricing. The closer current prices are to resistance, the more attention should be paid to sudden surges caused by macro headlines.
₿ BTC
View: Trading in a range, sell high and buy low; do not bet on direction before a breakout.
From a purely daily chart perspective, the market still leans toward a correction, but multiple timeframes below 12 hours are showing a bullish recovery, so going short blindly on the short term should be avoided.
The move to watch out for is:
Short-term bullish resonance → quick test of the upper boundary of the range → momentum fades at highs → returns to daily correction phase.
So, even if there’s a short-term breakout upwards, monitor whether trading volume can keep up. A breakout without strong volume still needs to be watched for potential bull traps.
For now, BTC can be regarded as trading within a broad range around 76,999–79,200. Until it truly breaks out of this zone, continue using the strategy of selling at highs and buying at lows; only after a sustained breakout with solid volume should you consider following the trend.
Support: 78,200, 77,555, 76,950
Resistance: 78,912, 79,100–79,388
⟠ ETH
View: Sideways movement is dominant; focus on abnormal ETH/BTC rate moves.
ETH currently also lacks a clear direction, but compared with BTC, special attention should be paid to independent price action arising from sudden changes in the rate.
If ETH/BTC suddenly breaks out upward while BTC itself remains weak, this may mean the market is undergoing short-term rotation of capital, and ETH is prone to a fast rally that breaks from BTC’s rhythm.
While such a move often re-aligns with the major trend eventually, the short-term deviation can be significant and, for contract trading, can trigger stop-losses or even liquidations.
The derivatives side is also worth attention: Funding rates for ETH perpetuals have recovered from a deeply negative reading. If they turn positive quickly and the price keeps rising, watch for long positions to become crowded and for a cascade effect to emerge.
So for now, it’s better to wait for key levels rather than chasing breakouts or breakdowns in the middle of the range.
Support: 2,420–2,435, 2,400
Resistance: 2,480, 2,500, 2,525, 2,565
