Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds to near $64, US private labor data awaited

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its early losses and rebounds to near $64.00 till the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal is broadly under pressure as surging United States (US) Treasury yields due to hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets are hurting non-yielding assets.

During the day, 10-year US Treasury Yields hit a record high at 4.81%, the highest level seen since November 2023.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in the policy meeting this month.

Hawkish Fed bets accelerated after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned of upside inflation risks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Analysts at MUFG highlight that, while Fed Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in Jackson Hole on Friday, “the gist of his speech was similar to his previous speeches.” They note that he once again “talked tough on inflation” and underscored that if inflation does not decline at “sufficient speed” then the Fed still has “work to do,” reinforcing the perception that the policy bias remains tilted toward further tightening if disinflation stalls.

On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michael Barr highlighted the need to hike interest rates if price pressures don’t moderate soon. Barr also warned, “Inflation remains too high.”

Later in the day, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change data for August, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. According to estimates, the US private sector created 48K fresh jobs, slightly higher than 44K in July.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.05. The pair holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.33, keeping the near-term tone mildly bearish as the failed attempt to sustain above recent highs leaves price capped by this dynamic resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.72 hovers just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at waning bullish momentum rather than an outright oversold condition.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around $65.33, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way back toward the recent peak zone. Looking up, the Silver price could advance further to the August high at $71.12.