1. Yesterday's Review: Under the Calm, Undercurrents Are Surging
The market maintained an overall range-bound pattern on Tuesday:
ETH experienced slight volatility at low levels, without a clear breakout;
SanDisk and SK Hynix both saw a spike followed by a pullback, with limited rebound strength.
Although it appeared uneventful, the market was quietly building energy for the next move.
2. Fundamentals: Geopolitical Tensions + Super Data Week Incoming
The market is currently driven by two forces, with risk appetite being continuously suppressed:
[Rising Geopolitical Risk]
The US military launched another strike on Iran on Tuesday, targeting nearly 60 Iranian military sites around the strait, including:
Air defense positions
Radar systems
Naval assets
Naval mine-laying capabilities
Communications sites
Geopolitical tensions have suddenly escalated, risk aversion has increased, and capital has turned cautious.
[Countdown to Key Data]
September 16: The US Federal Reserve meeting is approaching, with the market pricing in a 62.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike;
More importantly—the Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released tomorrow night, and bulls are hesitant before the data comes out.
🔎 In short: Geopolitical risk + policy uncertainty + major data approaching, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode in the short term.
3. Technical Analysis: Trading Ideas for Three Key Assets
ETH: Waning Momentum at Lows, Wait for Long Signal to Enter
4-hour timeframe: Yesterday’s low retested the previous support at 2355 with a lower wick, but didn’t break effectively; the range-bound pattern remains intact.
Hourly timeframe: Pay special attention—downward pressure at lows has clearly weakened, with bearish momentum bottoming out gradually.
📌 Trade Idea (Long Signal):
Entry signal: Hourly close above 2423
Stop loss: 2385
Targets: 2472 → 2534
⏳ Only act on “confirmed signals”, don’t jump in early. Once the hourly closes and holds above 2423, the odds for a long trade improve.
💾 SanDisk: Rebound Under Pressure, Maintaining Bearish Range
Wide range: 1618 — 1468
Key Levels Recap:
Failed to hold above 1580 the day before, bulls lost momentum;
Yesterday’s rebound tested the previous high at 1580 and quickly retreated, with prices weakening again.
📉 Overall outlook: Still expect range-bound adjustments today, with a bearish bias.
📌 Trade Idea (Sell on Rebounds):
Sell zone: Short between 1560 — 1580
Stop loss: 1590
Targets: 1514 → 1468
💡 Each rebound is a chance to short; as long as 1580 remains unbroken, bears have the upper hand.
SK Hynix: Inside a Contracting Triangle, No Direction for Now
The current price is within a 4-hour contracting triangle, with bulls and bears entering a final stage of tug-of-war and no clear direction yet.
📌 Trading idea: Stay on the sidelines for now, wait for a breakout from the triangle before considering a follow-up move—no need to force a trade.
