U.S. companies’ layoffs in the first eight months hit a four-year low, continuing the trend of "low hiring, low layoffs."

According to information from Zhichong Finance APP, in the first eight months leading up to 2026, planned layoffs by US companies have dropped to the lowest level in four years, further indicating that businesses remain reluctant to reduce staff numbers. Data released Thursday by US employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows that so far this year, companies have announced 529,914 layoffs, the lowest for the same period since 2022, when post-pandemic labor demand was still strong. Meanwhile, during the eight months ending in August, the number of planned corporate hires reached its highest since 2023.

Andy Challenger, the company's Chief Revenue Officer, stated: “We hope that as layoffs decrease, there will be an uptick in hiring activity. According to our data, although companies have set more hiring plans than last year, these positions don't seem to be filling quickly.”

Many economists still believe that the US labor market remains in a “low-hiring, low-layoff” state that has prevailed in recent years. Weekly initial unemployment claims data show no clear signs of mass layoffs, and the monthly employment report to be released Friday night is expected to show an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% for August.

Challenger's report also noted that, for the first time since February, artificial intelligence is no longer the primary cause cited by companies announcing layoffs; in August, “restructuring” surged to the top of the layoff reasons list. However, since the start of the year, artificial intelligence remains a major driver of layoffs.

It is worth noting that the non-farm payrolls report to be released Friday is not only a “health report” for the job market, but also one of the most important pieces of economic data before the Federal Reserve's mid-September rate decision meeting. The market expects an increase of 55,000 non-farm jobs in August, rebounding from July’s unexpectedly weak drop of 23,000.

However, Bank of America believes that the upcoming non-farm payrolls report is merely an “appetizer” ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16—the non-farm data is unlikely to be the deciding factor for a rate hike, and the real key will be the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on September 11. The market expects an inflation rate of 3.4%, flat from July, but given geopolitical pressures, the actual rate may be higher than expected. Bank of America maintains its expectation for a Fed rate hike in September.

CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September fell to about 60% from roughly 68% the previous day. Due to the “ADP” US private sector jobs data missing market expectations, the market has tempered its bets on a Fed rate hike in September.