Bitcoin-gold correlation rises to +0.50 while Nasdaq link hits 1-year low

Bitcoin strengthens ties with gold

According to analysis by the Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold now stands at +0.50. This nearly matches the peak reached during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when global markets faced extreme uncertainty. The Kobeissi Letter is a financial newsletter known for macroeconomic and market analysis.

Bitcoin and gold are increasingly moving together, with their 90-day correlation now at +0.50—almost matching the all-time high reached during the 2020 pandemic. This level has more than doubled since the beginning of the year.

The increase in correlation has accelerated in recent months. Following a recovery from the 2022 bear market, the same 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold peaked at only +0.30. Fresh figures from Bitwise and Bloomberg also placed the correlation at +0.50 through August 31, reinforcing the view that the two assets exhibit heightened co-movement.

The US Treasury’s recent move to double the size of its long-dated debt buyback operations has contributed to this trend. On August 19, the Treasury announced an increase in regular buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion each, reflecting a shift in policy that has echoed across financial markets.

Mini dictionary: US Treasury debt buybacks, a mechanism by which the US government repurchases its own long-term bonds from the market to manage overall debt maturity or market liquidity.

Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation at yearly low

While Bitcoin’s association with gold has intensified, its relationship with tech stocks, specifically the Nasdaq 100, has weakened. The Kobeissi Letter reported that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to approximately 0.30, marking the lowest reading in a year.

This divergence underscores a shift in market behavior, as Bitcoin decouples from the performance of leading US technology companies. Analysts suggest this change has redirected attention to Bitcoin’s role alongside gold as a scarce asset under macroeconomic stress.

Investors are turning to Bitcoin and gold as potential hedges against currency debasement, especially as US national debt approaches $40 trillion and concerns about fiscal sustainability rise.

Simultaneously, gold continues to see strong demand among central banks amid geopolitical and financial instability. The Netherlands recently transferred 86 tonnes of gold to London, an indication of active management of their national reserves.

Crypto market analyst Crypto Tice suggested that the recent pause in gold’s gains could drive more capital into Bitcoin. The observation refers to earlier patterns when investors reallocated profits from gold to Bitcoin after the yellow metal reached new peaks.

Gold and Bitcoin trade near record highs

Currently, gold is trading close to $4,430 per ounce, while Bitcoin remains around $81,000. The ongoing convergence in price action highlights how both assets now exhibit a much tighter price relationship compared to earlier periods this year.