Japanese Yen: Intervention risk and key levels in focus against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Japanese Yen (JPY) is modestly firmer, with USD/JPY extending losses through prior intervention lows near 155, a move seen as technically significant and potentially pointing to further Yen gains. They highlight strong wage data, a heavily priced 25 bps Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike on September 18, and key support around 153 and 152, with resistance now expected above 155.

Yen gains test intervention lows

"The JPY is entering Tuesday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% gain, fading the bulk of its near-1% Asian session rally through early European trade."

"The data calendar has been incredibly heavy, with key labor cash earnings (wage) data delivering a solid beat, while high profile (but less policy relevant) final Q2 GDP figures delivered a minor downward adjustment."

"Focus for the JPY remains centered on government and central bank efforts to support the currency, with officials keenly eyeing price action in the markets as policymakers lean on hawkish messaging into the September 18 meeting, where a 25bpt hike is almost fully priced."

"Support for USD/JPY has been observed around 153 and we note the absence of any additional support ahead of the 2026 lows near 152. Resistance is now expected above 155."