Copper: Tariff uncertainty and max CTA length – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek report that Copper’s recent rally has been driven mainly by supply-side factors linked to tariff-induced inventory depletion. Prices reversed sharply after headlines that the White House has not yet decided on tariffs, but CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) remain at maximum long exposure, with the nearest sell trigger identified around $13,500 per tonne.

CTAs stay max long despite pullback

"Copper prices reverse on tariff headlines."

"News that the White House has yet to decide on copper tariffs has catalyzed a sharp drop in the red metal on the day."

"This makes sense given the rally has been overwhelmingly driven by supply side factors, largely stemming from the tariff-induced inventory depletion, rather than any structural demand impulse."

"But, no decision does not mean no tariffs."

"Ultimately a final decision on tariffs could very well continue to be delayed beyond the January 2027 deadline, as keeping the risk of tariffs alive keeps metal in the US and keeps the arb flows alive."

"Despite the drop, CTAs remain comfortable with max long positions with the nearest sell trigger near $13,500/t"