Data Brief – HSBC lowers the average gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,490 per ounce
路透社2026/10/01 14:46Latest updates on HSBC and Bank of America
Reuters, October 1 - HSBC on Thursday lowered its gold price forecasts (link), citing expectations of further U.S. interest rate hikes and rising oil prices, which may put short-term pressure on gold prices. However, the bank expects long-term support to remain unchanged.
The bank now expects an average gold price of $4,490 per ounce in 2026, down from its previous forecast of $4,560. In addition, the bank cut its 2027 forecast from $4,925 to $4,825.
However, the bank anticipates several long-term positive factors to re-emerge, including widening fiscal deficits, persistently high government debt levels, and broader economic policy uncertainty. These factors are expected to rekindle investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Meanwhile, Bank of America expects gold prices to fall to $3,750 per ounce in the fourth quarter, as the recent surge in oil prices, stubbornly high inflation, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance bring short-term headwinds to the precious metals market.
On Thursday, spot gold XAU= rose 0.2%, trading near $4,163 per ounce.GOL/
Below is the latest list of analysts' gold price forecasts (unit: USD/ounce):
Broker/Institution | Annual Price Forecast | Target Price | Forecast Date |
2026 | |||
HSBC | $4,490 | -- | October 1, 2026 |
Bank of America | $4,389 | Expected fourth quarter price to drop to $3,750/ounce | October 1, 2026 |
JPMorgan | $4,545 | Expected average gold price of $4,300/ounce in Q3 2026, $4,500/ounce in Q4 | July 2, 2026 |
Goldman Sachs | - | Will reach $4,900 by December 2026 | June 18, 2026 |
ANZ* | $5,600 | Postponed target price of $6,000/ounce to mid-2027 from early 2027 | May 15, 2026 |
Macquarie Group | $4,323 | Expected average gold price of $4,590 in Q1, $4,300 in Q2 | February 5, 2026 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | Expected price to reach $6,100–$6,300 by end of 2026 | February 4, 2026 | |
UBS | - | Raised target prices for March, June, and September 2026 to $6,200 | January 29, 2026 |
Deutsche Bank | $5,500 | $6,000 for 2026 | January 26, 2026 |
Société Générale | - | $6,000 by end of 2026 | January 26, 2026 |
Morgan Stanley | $4,600 | Bullish target of $5,700 in H2 2026 | January 23, 2026 |
Citi Research | $5,000 | Raised 0–3 month target price to $5,000 | January 13, 2026 |
HSBC | $4,587 | $4,450 by end of 2026 | January 8, 2026 |
ANZ | $4,445 | $4,400 before year-end, $4,600 before June 2026 | October 16, 2025 |
Standard Chartered | $4,488 | - | October 13, 2025 |
Commerzbank | $4,900 | Reach $4,800 by mid-2026 | January 13, 2026 |
*Year-end forecast
(For the convenience of non-native English speakers, Reuters has automated its report translations into several other languages. As automated translation may be inaccurate or lack required context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of translated text and provides it solely for reader convenience. Reuters assumes no liability for any damage or loss arising from the use of the automated translation feature.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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