Data Brief - Major brokerage firms expect the next Federal Reserve interest rate hike to occur in December
路透社2026/10/01 15:01Update: Goldman Sachs' forecast on Federal Reserve interest rates
Reuters October 1 - At present, major global brokerage firms generally expect the Federal Reserve (FED) to raise interest rates at least one more time this year. With inflation data coming in below expectations, market expectations for further tightening in the near term have weakened, and more brokers have shifted their rate hike forecasts to December.
Goldman Sachs shares the same perspective as its global peers, stating that the FED is expected to raise rates again in December. Previously, the bank had forecast an interest rate hike of 25 basis points in October.
Data released on Wednesday showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for August rose by 3.4% year-on-year, lower than the 3.7% expected by economists surveyed by Reuters.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability in the interest rate futures market for another 25 basis point hike in October is currently around 38%, down from nearly 71% a week ago.
After September's rate hike, the FED will hold its next policy meeting again on October 27-28.
The following are forecasts for 2026 from major brokerage firms:
Brokerage | Total rate hikes in 2026 | Rate hikes in 2026 | Federal funds rate |
BofA Global Research | Raise interest rates by 50 basis points | 2 (October and December) | 4.25%-4.50% |
Goldman Sachs | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
JPMorgan | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Nomura | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
HSBC | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Barclays | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Deutsche Bank | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
UBS Global Research Division | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Morgan Stanley | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Macquarie | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
BNP Paribas | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Standard Chartered Bank | Raise interest rates by 25 basis points | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Citi Group | No change in policy | _ | 3.75%-4.00% |
(For the convenience of non-native English speakers, Reuters provides its reports with automated translation into several other languages. As automated translation may contain errors or fail to include necessary context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translation texts, and such translations are provided solely for the convenience of readers. Reuters assumes no responsibility for any damages or losses caused by the use of automated translation functions.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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