Global central banks' policy signals diverge; if the Democratic Party wins, it could intensify pressure on tech stocks — W42 Overseas Macro Focus

华尔街见闻2026/10/18 09:51

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Walsh gave a dovish speech at the IMF annual meeting, refusing to predict the remaining rate decisions for the year and reiterating the abandonment of forward guidance, thereby weakening the market's expectation for a rate hike in October. European Central Bank officials sent mixed signals, with the mainstream market expectation being that December could see the last rate hike. The Bank of Japan tends toward gradual interest rate hikes, with the market baseline expectation that rates will remain unchanged at the end of October.
The loosening of the US stock market's AI narrative and the risk of a US-Iran situation spiraling out of control are higher in scenarios where the Democratic Party wins big in the midterm elections, putting more pressure on tech stocks. If the Republican Party maintains at least a Senate majority, pressure on tech stocks may be temporarily alleviated.

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Global central banks' policy signals diverge; if the Democratic Party wins, it could intensify pressure on tech stocks — W42 Overseas Macro Focus

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