Oil, natural gas: If you want to squeeze someone out, it can only happen when they're vulnerable, then finish them off. 261025

地平线全球策略2026/10/25 16:37

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Brent's gains further expanded this week, just as mentioned in last week's wrap-up,many people tend to think that the upcoming midterm elections will reduce geopolitical risk—because Trump will start to instill reassurance and bring oil prices down—but in reality, the opposite is true. For those with a futures trading background, this should be very familiar. In the simplest terms—if you're going to squeeze someone, you can only do it when they're weakest; the more critical the moment, the more aggressive you need to be.Things are only going to get more tense.

BRN (daily chart, as of 261025)

Take-profit point moved to the low of the following bar..

Some new readers ask: What is a following bar?Literally, taking BRN as an example, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week are consolidation bars. You’ll see that during the timeframe you're betting on, there are many small bodies, which from a timeframe one or two units lower is essentially a very clear range. When you see small bodies, you need to see the range battle happening behind them—the meaning of range battle is narrowing volatility. We focus on the direction of expansion after volatility contracts; if the expansion direction matches the structural direction, then that's the follow-through...

HO (daily chart, as of 261025)

...

HO, to repeat last week's wrap-up—"starting to decouple from BRN, leaving fundamentals aside, price-wise it's simpler because it has already entered a downtrend channel, below the white line, with poor odds, and bulls should use a tight stop to flexibly respond to bearish reversal."... 

If you didn't feel anything when you read this last week, this week you should. In fact, if you took it in last week, you wouldn’t be asking “why has the correlation changed?” Everything is interconnected.

I originally wanted to focus my energy on continually updating the introductory (and not-so-introductory) technical analysis materials (with hopes of leaving my name in the history of technical analysis), but now I’m less sure about that plan. Because textbooks alone can never truly teach real, practical skills—that's why I'm trying another way—which is to combine all my knowledge with what's happening in the real world right now and write it into the weekly wrap; that’s my reason.

By reading the weekly wrap, seeing each chart, every paragraph, each setup and each structure, you gradually gain a richer perspective of this world of buying, selling, and pricing. What seeps into your mind via this subtle influence will be far more than any force-feeding could achieve, because back when I learned from my mentors, this is how they taught me—through inspiration, not indoctrination; practice, not dogma. Only through development can things advance; old stubborn routines breed nothing new.

NG, let’s use it to talk about the importance of “admitting mistakes in time”: The Ariston Top prediction was ultimately confirmed, and after the price broke our long plan's stop loss (flipping bearish) on Monday, volatility expanded and there was a huge decline.

NG (daily chart, as of 261025)

For every trade you need a plan before you act, including which levels will tell you you’re wrong, and which levels are your expected target prices—most importantly: strictly execute your plan.

If there was no planned stop, or if it wasn't strictly executed, I would have lost a huge amount on NG. Unfortunately, “if” doesn't exist—so Mr. Market can only leave with his tail between his legs (and can't truly hurt us)... 

*Pay attention to PT level, a major reversal with large volatility may occur again here

Medals are for the dead.

...

This article is excerpted from “ARI's WEEKLY WRAP 261025”. The full content will be released tonight in GMT+8:

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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