AI Bubble Index at 74, CoreWeave (CRWV.US) stock price may fall below $50

According to Woofun AI, CoreWeave (CRWV.US) shares have continued to fall, reaching a new low of $54.25 since May last year, nearly 70% down from the all-time high. The market is concerned it might break through the key $50 threshold.

The current Artificial Intelligence Stock Bubble Index has risen to an extreme zone of 74 points, reflecting that infrastructure investment scale and company valuations far exceed the actual reported revenue levels. Ray Dalio has warned that rising interest rates could burst the bubble, while Ken Griffin has likened it to the internet bubble.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that a Gartner report points out that new cloud services companies face higher risks than large cloud computing enterprises. It is expected that by the end of 2030, artificial intelligence infrastructure investments worth more than $3.5 trillion could face impairment risk.

This macro-level concern has directly translated into short-selling pressure on CoreWeave (CRWV.US), with its short interest ratio rising to 15%. The yield on the company's bonds maturing in 2031 has also climbed to 15%, while its total debt is close to $30 billion and capital expenditure is expected to remain high.

The worsening competitive landscape is intensifying valuation pressure. Almost all Bitcoin mining companies have entered the new cloud services sector; RUM Group (RUM.US) (formerly Rumble) joined the race by acquiring Northern Data; SpaceX (SPCX.US) has secured orders from Google (GOOGL.US) and Anthropic; Meta (META.US) (formerly Facebook), as well as private companies like Lambda, Nscale, and Firmus, are also competing for market share. From a technical perspective, CRWV has fallen below the neckline support level of $64 in the ‘head and shoulders’ pattern, breaking through both the 50-day moving average and the strong support and pivot at $75 indicated by Murrey Math Lines analysis. It currently remains below the supertrend indicator.

If the ultimate support level of $50 fails, the share price may further decline into the oversold zone at $37.5. This is, after the bursting of the internet bubble, a tough stress test for the valuation logic of AI infrastructure. The dual pressure of high leverage and new entrants is reshaping risk pricing in the industry.