Weekly Preview: Super Central Bank Week Teams Up with US PCE Data, Combined with Israeli Elections and UK Budget Proposal

1. This week, the central bank rate decisions of the United States, Europe, Japan, New Zealand, and Canada will be released in quick succession; the Israeli election, the UK budget announcement, and the ongoing turmoil in France will also attract significant market attention. 2. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday. As expectations for a rate hike in December have been almost entirely priced in, investors will focus on the FOMC statement and the press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Powell for clues regarding the future policy path. Federal Reserve official Musalem will give a speech on Friday. The US economic data calendar is packed, including the October Consumer Confidence Index, September Durable Goods Orders, Trade Balance, PCE Price Index, Personal Income and Spending, preliminary third-quarter GDP data, weekly initial jobless claims, and the third-quarter Employment Cost Index. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Visa will release their third-quarter earnings reports. 3. European Central Bank President Lagarde advocates a cautious approach to curb inflation, and markets expect the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged at 2.5% on Thursday. The statement and Lagarde's comments will influence market expectations; currently, the market is pricing in 71 basis points of tightening by the end of 2027. The eurozone will release the October Economic Sentiment Index, Consumer Confidence Index, preliminary third-quarter GDP data, and September unemployment rate; Germany will publish the October Ifo Business Climate Index, unemployment rate, inflation data, and preliminary third-quarter GDP data. 4. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 1.25% on Friday, but may raise its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2027. Its quarterly outlook report and press conference may lay the groundwork for further policy tightening. Key Japanese data include September unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales, and October Tokyo CPI. 5. The UK has no major data releases this week; Wednesday's budget announcement will be in the spotlight, with investors seeking to confirm whether fiscal discipline is being upheld. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada will announce rate decisions on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting both central banks to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points. 6. Australia's September quarter CPI, set to be released on Wednesday, will be closely watched by the market and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Also on Wednesday, an RBA official will attend a Senate Economics Committee hearing. Other data include Canadian retail sales and GDP, as well as Australia's Producer Price Index. The New Zealand market is closed on Monday.