Spot gold: fluctuating downward, sell on rallies

(1) Analysis: Rising energy costs are intensifying inflation concerns, and the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates higher for longer. CME FedWatch indicates about a 79.4% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, and roughly a 90.6% probability of a hold at this month's meeting. On a technical level, the short-term price has already fallen below the key $4,000 mark and is approaching recent lows, remaining in a weak consolidation pattern while waiting for support confirmation.(2) Key focuses: US Treasury yields, US Dollar Index, geopolitical situation(3) Resistance levels: 4,020; 4,060; 4,100(4) Support levels: 3,980; 3,950; 3,900